572
FXUS66 KPQR 142319 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
419 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS IN THE WESTERN
SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A QUICK RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
RETURN MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING
DRIER.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING
OVERHEAD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE REGION,
WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION AND INTO WESTERN CANADA ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN MONTANA WHILE A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE OREGON COAST THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW WITH EAST WINDS THROUGH
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES.
WARMING ALOFT COUPLED WITH DRY, DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH DAYS, INCLUDING
AT THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE TEMPERATURES REACH
80 DEGREES, WITH AROUND A 10-60% CHANCE ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR,
HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER,
MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK ANY RECORDS (WHICH WERE
MAINLY SET BACK IN 2022). COULD BE OUR LAST "HOT" DAY OF THE YEAR,
AS WE TYPICALLY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
OCTOBER.
EAST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY BY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE INTO THE EASTERN PORTLAND METRO
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE TO
AROUND -5 TO -6 MB WHICH COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH,
EXCEPT UP TO 45-50 MPH ON WIND-PRONE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS LIKELY BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
EASING BY THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. /DH
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRINGS CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. LIGHT RAIN BEGINS AT THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FROM LINCOLN CITY NORTHWARD. RAIN CHANCES
SPREAD INLAND SATURDAY MORNING, PEAKING AROUND 40-60% ACROSS THE
SOUTH WASHINGTON AND NORTH OREGON CASCADES, 25-50% ALONG THE
I-5 CORRIDOR FROM SALEM NORTHWARD, AND 10-20% SOUTH OF SALEM.
RAIN AMOUNTS, IF ANY, WILL BE LIGHT. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AS TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ACROSS
INTERIOR VALLEYS AND 50S ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADES.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN BETWEEN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL, ALBEIT LOW, TO BRING A MORE
MEANINGFUL AMOUNT OF RAIN CONSIDERING HOW DRY CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
THUS FAR THIS OCTOBER. THE NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS A 20-35% CHANCE FOR
AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN BETWEEN 5 AM PDT MONDAY AND 5 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY. PROBS CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS THERE ARE AN INCREASING
NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A SOLUTION WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS FARTHER OFFSHORE OR PROGRESSES FARTHER SOUTH INTO
CALIFORNIA, LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN IN OUR AREA. CHANCES FOR
IMPACTFUL WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE CURRENTLY LESS THAN 10% WITH
THIS SYSTEM. DH/10/23
AVIATION...THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
ALONG THE NORTH OR AND SOUTH WA
COAST, INCLUDING KAST, CIGS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN HIGH-END MVFR
(2-3 KFT) AND VFR THROUGH AROUND 00Z THURSDAY AS A WEAK FRONT
BRUSHES SW WA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND
5-10 KT FOR MOST TERMINALS. STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN KTTD AND KDLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS AFTER 06Z THU ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE
CASCADES AND COAST RANGE INTO THE COAST. EAST WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
KTS. THESE STRONGER EAST WINDS REACH KTTD AROUND 12Z THURSDAY
WHERE WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30 KTS, FOLLOWED BY KPDX AROUND 18Z
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN NORTH
5-10 KTS IN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND EASTERLY AT 5-10 KT ALONG
THE COAST.
BETWEEN 11Z AND 18Z THURSDAY, THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE FOR
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS
AT THIS TIME. ANY LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AROUND 17Z-19Z THURSDAY.
LLWS WILL POSSIBLY IMPACT KPDX AND LOCATIONS EASTWARD STARTING
AROUND 11Z THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 4-6 KT. LLWS WILL
POSSIBLY IMPACT KPDX AND LOCATIONS EASTWARD STARTING AROUND 11Z
THURSDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. /42-03
MARINE
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE TURNING NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4-7 FT THIS
WEEK WITH PERIODS OF 12-14 SECONDS.
A STEEPER NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, BUILDING SEAS
TO 7-9 FT BY SUNDAY AND 10-12 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A
10-20% CHANCE FOR SEAS EXCEEDING 15 FT ON MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE FALCON AND BEYOND 30-40 NM. WILL
ALSO NOTE THAT THE LONG PERIODS FROM THE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS WEEK. CAUTION SHOULD BE USED
WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER. -10/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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