049
FXUS66 KPQR 151121 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
421 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
BRING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THE STRONGEST EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLUMBIA
RIVER GORGE AND WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DEPICT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGH THE MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE THAT
SOME STRATUS DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH 8-9
AM.
TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS
AND 60S ALONG THE COAST. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN REACH 80
DEGREES, WITH A 10-30% CHANCE ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND A
50-70% CHANCE ALONG VALLEYS OF THE CASCADE FOOTHILLS. ALTHOUGH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER, MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK
ANY RECORDS (WHICH WERE MAINLY SET BACK IN 2022). THESE COULD
BE OUR LAST "HOT" DAYS OF THE YEAR, AS WE TYPICALLY SEE
TEMPERATURES DROP OFF DURING THE SECOND HALF OF OCTOBER.
IN ADDITION TO WARM TEMPERATURES, WILL ALSO SEE INCREASING
OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING THIS MORNING ALONG THE
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE, EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO,
CASCADES, AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTENING TO -5 TO -6 MB
BETWEEN TROUTDALE AND THE DALLES, PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO
25-35 MPH, EXCEPT UP TO 45-50 MPH ON WIND-PRONE EXPOSED
RIDGETOPS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLACKEN LATER FRIDAY MORNING WITH
WINDS EASING BY THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING
WEAK COLD FRONT. -10/DH
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWINGS THROUGH ON SATURDAY, RETURNING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN. BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS AIMED TOWARDS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND FAR
NORTHWEST WASHINGTON, SO THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO IN NORTHWEST
OREGON SUCH AS LINCOLN COUNTY OR THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY,
THE MORE LIKELY CONDITIONS REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY. CHANCES FOR
RAIN TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.10 INCH FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM
SATURDAY ARE ONLY 5-15% FROM SALEM TO LONGVIEW, AND 10-30% ALONG
THE COAST FROM TILLAMOOK NORTHWARD AND THE SOUTH WA/NORTH OR
CASCADES. CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRY OUT SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AS
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH. EXPECT SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS AND
50S ALONG THE COAST AND CASCADES.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RETURNING CHANCES FOR
RAIN BETWEEN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL
NOTE THAT THESE CHANCES HAVE GONE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, AS OF 75%
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW SHOWING THIS TROUGH STAYING FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA RATHER THAN
MOVING COMPLETELY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IF THIS SCENARIO
OCCURS, PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIMITED IN OUR AREA. CHANCES FOR
24-HOUR RAIN TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.25 INCH BETWEEN 5 AM MONDAY TO 5
AM TUESDAY HAVE FALLEN TO 15-20% ALONG THE COAST, COAST RANGE,
AND WILLAPA HILLS, AND 5-10% ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
BY WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING INTO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, FAVORING PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE
SAME TIME, IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO APPROACH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND POTENTIALLY MAKE ITS WAY
DOWN INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK, RETURNING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. -10
AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TERMINAL
OBSERVATIONS AS OF EARLY THURSDAY MORNING DEPICT PREDOMINATELY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING,
THOUGH THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR STRATUS OR LOWER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AT ANY GIVEN HOUR
THROUGH 15-16Z FRI. THERE IS ALSO SOME SHALLOW FOG AROUND THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA BRINGING LOCALIZED VIS DROPS TO 5SM (SUCH AS IN
KHIO) WHICH MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE, SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL TODAY.
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE
AND EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA, BRINGING GUSTS OF 24-26
KT TO KTTD, AND 21-23 KT TO KPDX AFTER 18-21Z FRI. WILL ALSO SEE
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST AS WELL, HOWEVER, THOSE WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 10 KT TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH 13-14Z THU, THEN
TURNING EASTERLY. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO 21-23 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 04-06Z FRI. -10
MARINE
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE. A THERMAL TROUGH
ALONG THE COAST WILL BRING LIGHT, EAST/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN, RETURNING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER
THE WATERS. A SERIES OF FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL
TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4-7 FT AT 10-12
SECONDS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A STEEPER NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, BUILDING
SEAS TO 7-9 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING AND 10-12 FT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A 5-15% CHANCE FOR SEAS EXCEEDING 15 FT ON
MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF CAPE FOULWEATHER AND
BEYOND 30-40 NM. WILL ALSO NOTE THAT THE LONG PERIODS FROM THE
SWELLS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT THIS WEEK.
CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER. -10/03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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