379
FXUS66 KPQR 152133
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
232 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGEST EAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE CASCADES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE CASCADES WILL
MAINTAIN LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS BETWEEN TROUTDALE AND THE DALLES HAS PEAKED AROUND -6.5 MB
WHICH IS PRODUCING EAST WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 25-35 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PORTLAND METRO AREA, WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH AT
WIND PRONE AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITHIN THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN AROUND -4 TO -6 MB
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE EASING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNNY SKIES TODAY COMBINED WITH THE DRY, OFFSHORE FLOW AND MID-LEVEL
(850 MB) TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 17-18 C WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
REACHING 80 DEGREES, INCLUDING AT THE COAST. ON FRIDAY, THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NE OVER THE
PACIFIC. EXPECT INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. MARINE STRATUS WILL ALSO BEGIN
PUSHING ONTO THE COAST AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, MODERATING TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-OCTOBER, MOST LOCATIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK ANY RECORDS (WHICH WERE MAINLY SET BACK IN
2022). THESE COULD BE OUR LAST "HOT" DAYS OF THE YEAR, AS WE
TYPICALLY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
OCTOBER.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON EARLY SATURDAY
WILL SEND A WEAK COLD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO
LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY MORNING. MEAN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 0.10
INCH, GENERALLY NORTH OF LINCOLN CITY AT THE COAST AND FROM THE
PORTLAND METRO AREA NORTHWARD, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE
SOUTHWEST WA CASCADES. DRY CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL
FROST AGAIN AS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COOL SAT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY. /DH
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY AS LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID-60S INLAND AND 50S ALONG THE COAST. POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
FROST CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITHIN THE UPPER
HOOD RIVER VALLEY.
MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL APPROACH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, RETURNING CHANCES FOR RAIN BETWEEN EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NOTE THAT THESE CHANCES
HAVE GONE DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, AS OF 75% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE NOW
SHOWING THIS TROUGH STAYING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA RATHER THAN MOVING COMPLETELY OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS, PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIMITED IN OUR AREA. CHANCES FOR 24-HOUR RAIN TOTALS EXCEEDING 0.25
INCH BETWEEN 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM TUESDAY REMAIN AT AROUND 15-25%
ALONG THE COAST AND COAST RANGE, AND 5-15% ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR.
BY WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING INTO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, FAVORING PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS. AT THE SAME TIME,
IT DOES APPEAR THAT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH BRITISH COLUMBIA AND POTENTIALLY MAKE ITS WAY DOWN INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK, RETURNING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. DH/10
AVIATION...THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS
WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY,
BRINGING EAST WINDS TO THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
COAST RANGE AND TO THE COAST. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE AND EASTERN PORTLAND/VANCOUVER METRO AREA
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS TO KTTD AND 21-25 KT TO OTHER PORTLAND
AREA TERMINALS. GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES
THROUGH COASTAL GAPS. FOR THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY, EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10
KTS. ELEVATED WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT NEAR AND EAST OF
KTTD WILL DECREASE AFTER 03-06Z FRI, WITH KTTD DECREASING AFTER
18-21Z FRI.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 21-25 KT
AFTER 19-21Z THU. WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER 04-06Z FRI. -03
MARINE
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT EAST/NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE TRANSITIONING TO NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS A THERMAL TROUGH SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. A
SERIES OF FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL TURN WINDS
SOUTHERLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4-7 FT AT 10-12 SECONDS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A STEEPER NORTHWESTERLY SWELL ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, BUILDING SEAS
TO 7-9 FT BY SATURDAY EVENING AND 10-13 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW HIGH SEAS WILL RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SWELL. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR SEAS EXCEEDING 15 FT
ON MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEYOND 30-40 NM. WILL ALSO
NOTE THAT THE LONG PERIODS FROM THE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE SNEAKER WAVE THREAT FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CAUTION
SHOULD BE USED WHEN IN OR NEAR THE WATER. -03
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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