844
FXUS66 KPQR 162135
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
235 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SYNOPSIS
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A WEAK
COLD FRONT BRINGS LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS DRY WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIKELY REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN RETURNS THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EAST
OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALOFT OVER
THE PACIFIC NW. WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING
WHILE OFFSHORE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN AND THE FLOW TURNS
BACK ONSHORE.
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
APPROACH THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WA EARLY SATURDAY, CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN WILL INCREASE ALONG THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD INLAND
THROUGH SAT MORNING. MEAN QPF VALUES RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 0.10
INCH, GENERALLY NORTH OF NEWPORT AT THE COAST AND FROM EUGENE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DRY OUT BY
THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
CLOUDS CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S. OUTSIDE OF THE
CASCADES, THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER HOOD
RIVER VALLEY.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A RELATIVELY FLAT SHORTWAVE
RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS PEAKING IN THE MID-60S FOR MOST INTERIOR LOWLANDS AND MID-50S
TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FROST IN THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND
THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AS LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. /DH
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT A RATHER ROBUST LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC TOWARD THE
OREGON COAST EARLY MONDAY, BUT REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTH TO BRING ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACTS TO THE AREA. IN FACT,
CHANCES FOR EVEN LIGHT RAIN HAVE GENERALLY DECREASES TO AROUND 25%
OR LESS, MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND COAST RANGE SOUTH OF ASTORIA. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT WITH THE
MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST ON TUESDAY. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO PERSIST NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON
WEDNESDAY, WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE PACIFIC NW. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. MORE UNCERTAINLY RETURNS LATER NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASE ON THURSDAY, THOUGH CURRENTLY REMAIN LESS THAN
40%. /DH
AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z SAT ALONG THE COAST AND THROUGH 12Z SAT
INLAND. HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE WILL TEND TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT. MARINE STRATUS WILL SEE 70-90% CHANCES FOR
IFR CIGS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 00-03Z SAT, BEFORE CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASE AFTER 06-09Z SAT. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
IS ALONG THE NORTH OR/SOUTH WA COAST (KAST, KTMK). INLAND,
CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS REACH 60-70% AFTER 12Z SAT WHILE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN PEAK AT 30-60% FROM 12-15Z SAT.
GUSTY EAST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WESTERN COLUMBIA GORGE,
SUPPORTING CONTINUED GUSTS TO 20-30 KT AT KTTD INTO THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES. ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WINDS INLAND AND
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. A PASSING FRONT
WILL BRING CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT RAIN FROM 12-15Z SAT.
LIGHT EAST WINDS MAY REACH THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TURNING SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. -36
MARINE
WINDS BACK TODAY INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL TRAVERSE THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, BEFORE
VEERING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SEAS OF 5-7 FT AT AROUND 12 SECONDS OTHERWISE CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MID-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH SEAS RISING TO 8-10 FT. CHANCES FOR SEAS
TO EXCEED 10 FT REACH 10-20% BEYOND 30 NM NORTH OF CAPE FALCON.
THIS SWELL WILL ALSO POSE A MODERATE RISK FOR SNEAKER WAVES ALONG
THE COAST WHILE OVERALL SEAS REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN; CAUTION
SHOULD BE USED BY THOSE IN OR NEAR THE WATER ALONG COASTAL BEACHES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK SOUTHWARD WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY BRING
A PERIOD OF STEEPER SEAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL PEAK WAVE HEIGHT.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS THE WESTERLY SWELL REACHING 11-12 FT
AT 12-14 SECONDS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE EASING BELOW
10 FT BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A 10-20% CHANCE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS REACH 15 FT OR HIGHER BEYOND 20 NM. -36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
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