720
FXUS66 KPQR 191735 AAB
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
1035 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
LARGELY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER RETURN LATE IN
THE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE PACNW, WHICH HAS INCREASED MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS INCREASED CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT THE SURFACE INSULATED WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO MID TO UPPER
40S ELSEWHERE. AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLES REMAINS VERY HIGH
IN THE TROUGH ELONGATING AND PINCHING OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER
LOW THAT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID
WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW OVER LAND WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES AT 15-20%. COOLER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL DROP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL TODAY
WITH THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND THE
COASTAL AREAS THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT TOWARD CALIFORNIA WHILE HEIGHTS REBOUND LOCALLY. THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WILL HELP TEMPERATURES JUMP BACK ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS BUT THE
TYPICAL COOL SPOTS LIKE THE UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
THE COAST RANGE MAY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. LOWS AT THIS TIME COULD
DROP BELOW 37 DEGREES BRIEFLY SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FROST
DEVELOPMENT SO WILL HOLD OFF ON FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AGAIN TRENDS TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND MODEST CHANCES FOR RAIN. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT
IN TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DROPPING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PACNW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MUCH COOLER WITH MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. IF TRENDS CONTINUES, WILL LIKELY NEED FROST ADVISORIES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS, COAST RANGE VALLEYS AND OTHER TYPICAL
COOL SPOTS. POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW FOR A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE PACNW THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BE THE FIRST ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OF THE SEASON,
BRINGING SUBSTANTIAL RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT DETAILS SHOULD
BECOME CLEARER IN THE COMING DAYS. -19
AVIATION...THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHWARD WELL OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO SEND SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
BECOME THICKER TONIGHT, HELPING TO PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (>90%) FOR CONTINUED VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT AT
LESS THAN 5-10 KT BEFORE OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOP SOMETIME BETWEEN
15-18Z TUESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS TO KTTD AND
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS TO KUAO. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTH FROM KSLE TO KEUG.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR FLIGHTS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING BROKEN TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SOMETIME BETWEEN 22Z MONDAY AND 00Z TUESDAY, SUSTAINED AROUND 5
KT. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KPDX AROUND 18-19Z
TUESDAY, SUSTAINED AROUND 8-11 KT. -23
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST SWELL THAT
CONTINUES TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5-6 FEET AT 11-12 SECONDS. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD WELL OFFSHORE WILL
GENERATE A STRONGER WESTERLY SWELL ARRIVING THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL PUSH SEAS TO 8-11 FT, HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM AND SOUTH OF CAPE
FALCON WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT
5 PM TODAY.
WINDS TURN NORTHERLY LATER TODAY AND INCREASE NOTICEABLY TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO 25
KT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEYOND 10 NM FOR PZZ271-273 INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. THEREFORE, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE FALCON TO 5 PM TUESDAY WHILE ALSO ADDING A SECOND SCA FOR
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE FALCON UP TO CAPE SHOALWATER IN EFFECT FROM 2
AM TO 5 PM TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE IMPROVE MIDWEEK AS WINDS AND SEAS EASE, BUT
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK. INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A NORTHWESTERLY SWELL COULD PUSH SEAS
CLOSE TO 10 FT AGAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AND A MORE POTENT
WEATHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SEAS ABOVE 10 FT AND POTENTIALLY GALE-FORCE WINDS. -19/36
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ271.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ272-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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