866
FXUS66 KPQR 211059
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
359 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2026
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE AROUND TEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR INLAND VALLEYS. WINDS TURN ONSHORE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDING COOLER THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH WIDESPREAD MORNING FROST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME WHEN CHANCES INCREASE TO 30-50%.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY, SUPPORTING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH INTERIOR LOWLANDS PEAKING IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S AND 60S ALONG THE COAST. OFFSHORE WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING ON THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES AND
THROUGH THE COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE. WIND GUSTS IN THE WESTERN
COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE COULD STILL REACH 20-30 MPH THROUGH AROUND
11 AM TODAY. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN ONSHORE AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS SEVERAL TROUGHS MOVE OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWLANDS AND 50S AT THE COAST FROM
THURSDAY ONWARD. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH THE SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH ON THURSDAY WITH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER
THE CASCADES AND CASCADE FOOTHILLS, MAINLY IN EASTERN LANE AND
LINN COUNTIES WHERE POPS PEAK BETWEEN 20-40%. THE MAIN CONCERN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE WIDESPREAD MORNING FROST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, BRINGING IMPACTS TO THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS. SATURDAY MORNING IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE COLDEST
MORNING, AS THIS IS WHEN SOME LOCATIONS COULD FALL BELOW-
FREEZING; THE NBM IS SHOWING A 25-50% CHANCE FOR LOWS OF 32
DEGREES OR COLDER IN THE SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, EXCEPT
HIGHER CHANCES GREATER THAN 80% FROM CRESWELL TO COTTAGE GROW
AND NEAR 15% IN EUGENE.
DETAILS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND REMAIN MURKY AS ENSEMBLES SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO VARY. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (30-40%) THAT A ROBUST
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND DROPS SOUTHWARD,
SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW AS IT APPROACHES THE PACNW. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER WITH MORE SOLUTIONS FAVORING THE
SURFACE LOW REMAINING OFFSHORE OR TRACKING FARTHER NORTH INTO
CANADA. THIS CURRENT TREND SIGNAL LOWER POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA BUT ALSO LOWER CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT BEING SAID, POPS HAVE DECREASED TO
30-50% LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF
RAIN REMAIN AROUND 20-40% FOR MOST LOCATIONS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER
NEAR 40-50% ALONG THE COAST. LASTLY, CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL WINDS
HAVE ALSO DECREASED WITH THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND,
WITH LESS THAN A 5% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH OR
STRONGER. THEREFORE, IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
AND THERE'S A NOTABLE CHANCE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. CHANCES
FOR RAIN DECREASE EVEN MORE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO 10-15%.
-19/23
AVIATION...THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. CEILINGS WITH THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ABOVE 15-20 KFT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 8 KTS AT MOST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KTTD AND
THROUGH CASCADE GAPS WHERE EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
AROUND 8-12 KTS THROUGH AROUND 09-12Z WED WHEN WINDS BEGIN
DECREASING. WINDS SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 15-18Z WED
ALONG THE COAST AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS
ABOVE 20 KFT. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 6 KTS. -03
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE
WAKE OF A SYSTEM THAT IS DROPPING SOUTHWARD. WIDESPREAD WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS BEYOND
10 NM OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH 5 PM TODAY.
WINDS HAVE ALREADY DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS, AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS
INITIALLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
THESE MARINE ZONES.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SET TO INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DECAYING COOL FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CAPE FALCON WHERE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BRINGING A
10-30% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND SEAS OVER 10 FEET.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
CHANCES HAVE DECREASED FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS AND SEAS WITH TODAY'S
FORECAST UPDATE DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE LOW TRACK. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ210-252-253-273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ251-
271-272.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
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