458
FXUS66 KPQR 221108
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
408 AM PDT THU OCT 22 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE WEAK STORM SYSTEMS RETURN CHANCES FOR
BENEFICIAL RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION TODAY, SENDING A DECAYING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WILL
SIGNAL THE ONSET OF COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED OVER THE LOWLANDS
AND 50S AT THE COAST FROM TODAY ONWARD. POPS ARE LOW AT 20-30%
AND WILL BE RESTRAINED TO THE CASCADES. THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
WILL BE TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. THIS WOULD BRING IMPACTS TO THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS. FOR TONIGHT, FREEZE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUES FOR THE
SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND PART OF THE NORTHERN OR COAST
RANGE. FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY OF THE FORECAST
ZONES ADJACENT TO THE FREEZE WATCHES. HEADLINES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED WITH EVEN COLDER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. FREEZE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY, LANE AND LINN COUNTY
CASCADE FOOTHILLS, AND AN EXPANDED PORTION OF THE NORTHERN OR
COAST RANGE. FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MANY OF THE
ADJACENT FORECAST ZONES INCLUDING THE PORTLAND METRO AND OR
COASTAL ZONES.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO DROP
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AROUND WHETHER
OR NOT THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL CUTOFF, CLIP THE REGION AND THEN
HANG WELL OFFSHORE FOR 24-48 HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INLAND, HOVER
OVER OR CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO BRING A COUPLE BOUTS OF
RAIN OVER 48-72 HOURS, OR IF THE ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN AN OPEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND KEEPS THE AREA LARGELY DRY. POPS CONTINUE TO
TREND LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A 24-40% CHANCE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, SLIGHTLY HIGHER AROUND 50% ALONG THE NORTHERN OR AND
SOUTHERN WA COASTS. PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND 20-30% FOR
MOST LOCATIONS, UP TO 40-50% ALONG THE COAST. -19
AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR INLAND TERMINALS WHILE PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND
STRATUS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS
SUPPORTING VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KONP AND KAST AS LOW
CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD FOR BRIEF PERIODS. EXPECTING THIS VARIABLE
TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH 15-17Z BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT
INCREASES PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR OR LOWER CIGS TO AROUND 60%
BETWEEN 17-22Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THEN A WEAK
FRONT WILL TURN WINDS NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE AFTER 18Z ALONG
THE COAST TO 12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND AFTER 20-22Z
INLAND TO 8-12 KTS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT WINDS AND PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE BECOMING NORTHWEST 8-10 KTS AFTER 20-22Z. -19/03
MARINE
NORTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING, INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS TO20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ALL ZONES UNTIL 8 PM TODAY. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS REMAIN HAZARDOUS
EVEN AFTER 8 PM WITH SEAS BECOMING VERY STEEP. THEREFORE,
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS WILL BEGIN AT 8 PM AND CONTINUE THROUGH
7 AM FRIDAY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR WHERE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE SAME TIME
PERIOD.
A STRONGER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WATERS FRIDAY. MODEL ENSEMBLES
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE LOW REMAINING FURTHER OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN AND IF THE LOW WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO SHORE AND A DIMINISHING THREAT OF GALE CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND. -19/11
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ORZ101>103-105-107>109-111>113-119-123.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ104-116>118.
FREEZE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ104-106-114>118-124-125.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
ORZ105>107-109-114-115-124-125.
WA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
WAZ203>208.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
WAZ203>205-208.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ210.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ251-
271-272.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ252-253-273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
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