235
FXUS66 KPQR 231051
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
351 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY,
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP DOWN BY MID-WEEK, WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE
HOLD OVER THE AREA AS A TRANSIENT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY
IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST, INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR THE
CASCADES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND, LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP, PEAKING OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON THE COAST, INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND LOW 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE
CASCADES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT, WITH FREEZE
WATCHES AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN EFFECT; FREEZE WATCHES
MAY BE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNINGS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
THERE REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES THAT
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
SATURDAY AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND. BY SUNDAY, THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT ON HOW THE LOW WILL
EVOLVE AS IT NEARS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR NOW, THERE ARE
MODEST CHANCES, NEAR 50%, FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION,
DECREASING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING MAY
LINGER OVERHEAD. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER.
LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK,
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REMAINS HIGH. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE
SPLIT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE ECWMF MAINTAINING A RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AS A BROAD, UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS NEAR
40N/140W WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN OF A WARM AND DRY PATTERN.
WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES LEAN INTO A BROAD TROUGH SPREADING
SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN CANADA THUS MAINTAINING A COOLER AND
WETTER PATTERN. AS A RESULT NBM IS KEEPING A BROAD, 15-20%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH LITTLE TO NO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /42-36
AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH AROUND 15Z
FRIDAY. UNTIL THOSE CLOUDS SCOUR OUT, THERE WILL BE A 5-10% CHANCE
FOR INTERMITTENT LOW-END VFR/HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS FOR KPDX,
KTTD AND KUAO. ANY LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO DEVELOP,
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 16Z-18Z FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE ALSO IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BETWEEN KUAO AND KEUG AS WELL AS KAST STARTING
AROUND 11Z SATURDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A 5-10%
CHANCE FOR INTERMITTENT LOW-END VFR/HIGH-END MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
AROUND 15Z FRIDAY. ANY LOWERED FLIGHT CONDITIONS THAT DO DEVELOP,
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 16Z-18Z FRIDAY. /42
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS OF 1 AM PDT FRIDAY SHOWS
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. IN ADDITION TO THE
WINDS, SEAS ARE AROUND 10 TO 12 FT AROUND 9 TO 11 SECONDS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE RESULTING IN STEEP AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 8 AM PDT FRIDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING. WILL
ALSO MAINTAIN THE TRAILING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES, WHICH WILL COME
ON-LINE AROUND 8 AM PDT FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CHANNEL OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BAR
WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 8 AM PDT
FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE RELATIVELY LESS STEEP WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 9 FT AT 8 TO 10 SECONDS.
NORTHERLY WINDS WEAKEN BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED
NORTHWEST SWELL AND SEAS BECOMING LESS STEEP. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
APPROACHING LOW STALLS WEST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW
HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE
SHOWING THAT WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO RE-BUILD AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS. /42
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ORZ101>103-105-107>109-111>113-119-123.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ104-116>118.
FREEZE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ORZ104-106-114>118-124-125.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR ORZ105>107-109-
114-115-124-125.
WA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
WAZ203>208.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR WAZ203>205-208.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ210.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ251>253-271>273.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM PDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PZZ251>253-271>273.
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