738
FXUS66 KPQR 231601 AAA
AFDPQR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
900 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION, MARINE DISCUSSION, AND PQR
WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY,
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH PERSISTENT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A RELATIVELY
STRONGER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP DOWN BY MID-WEEK, WHICH LOOKS TO
BRING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY (20-30%) FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE
HOLD OVER THE AREA AS A TRANSIENT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY
IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 50S ON THE COAST, INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S FOR THE
CASCADES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INLAND, LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP, PEAKING OVERNIGHT IN THE CASCADES AND COAST RANGE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ON THE COAST, INTO THE LOW
TO MID 60S FOR INLAND VALLEYS AND LOW 50S TO LOW 60S FOR THE
CASCADES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT, WITH FREEZE
WATCHES AND FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN EFFECT; FREEZE WATCHES
MAY BE UPGRADED TO FREEZE WARNINGS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING.
THERE REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES THAT
ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
SATURDAY AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFSHORE OF VANCOUVER
ISLAND. BY SUNDAY, THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT ON HOW THE LOW WILL
EVOLVE AS IT NEARS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FOR NOW, THERE ARE
MODEST CHANCES, NEAR 50%, FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION,
DECREASING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING MAY
LINGER OVERHEAD. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO LIKELY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER.
LOOKING BEYOND THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK,
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST REMAINS HIGH. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE
SPLIT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH THE ECWMF MAINTAINING A RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AS A BROAD, UPPER LEVEL LOW PERSISTS NEAR
40N/140W WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN OF A WARM AND DRY PATTERN.
WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLES LEAN INTO A BROAD TROUGH SPREADING
SOUTHWARD FROM FAR WESTERN CANADA THUS MAINTAINING A COOLER AND
WETTER PATTERN. AS A RESULT NBM IS KEEPING A BROAD, 15-20%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH LITTLE TO NO QPF ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SEASONAL DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. /42-36
AVIATION...THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD. STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE CASCADES THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY 17-18Z FRIDAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT WEST OF THE
CASCADE FOOTHILLS AS OF 1530Z FRIDAY, EXCEPT AT KEUG WHERE A
BROKEN STRATUS DECK REMAINS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4500 FT.
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT
KUAO, KSLE, KEUG, AND KAST STARTING AROUND 11Z SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY PUTTING A BROKEN OR OVERCAST LOW STRATUS DECK IN THE TAFS.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z
SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 3-5 KT. -23
MARINE
BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS OF 8 AM PDT FRIDAY SHOWED
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.
SEAS REMAINED AROUND 10 TO 12 FT AT 9 TO 11 SECONDS, MAINLY DRIVEN
BY A NORTHWEST SWELL. GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN STRENGTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE SEAS
DECREASE AND BECOME LESS STEEP. THEREFORE, HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNINGS
ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH 5 PM PDT FRIDAY
GIVEN CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT AS SEAS
AND WINDS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DECREASE.
A SLOW-MOVING LOW WILL APPROACH THE OUTER WATERS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY, BRINGING A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH SEAS
INCREASING AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT DURING THAT TIME, BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW, HOWEVER PROBABILITIES FOR GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS REMAIN LOW AT 5-15%. CHANCES FOR SEAS OVER 10 FT
PEAK BETWEEN 15-35% SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
BEYOND 20-30 NM OFFSHORE. -23
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ORZ101>103-105-107>109-111>113-119-123.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
ORZ104-106-114>118-124-125.
WA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
WAZ203>208.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ251>253-271>273.
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PORTLAND
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
X.COM/NWSPORTLAND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page