359
FXUS65 KPSR 161019
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
319 AM MST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF DRY WEATHER SYSTEMS
TRAVERSE PRIMARILY NORTH OF ARIZONA.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ARC ACROSS WESTERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGING FEATURE THAT WILL TAKE HOLD TODAY. IN
RESPONSE TO BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS, TEMPERATURES WILL NOTABLY
WARM BY SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES,
GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL BE THE THEME FOR THE
REGION FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE NEXT WEEK.
ASIDE FROM A COUPLE OF WEAK AND DRY TROUGHS THAT WILL TRAVERSE
ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY,
THE GENERAL FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ZONAL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THUS, THE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE WITH LOWERING
HEIGHTS FROM THESE TROUGHS WON'T BE OVERLY NOTICEABLE, AS LOWER
DESERT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
ON TUESDAY. THE ONLY SENSIBLE CHANGES WILL BE SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS, MOST NOTABLY THE NORTHERLY
DRAINAGE WINDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY WHERE WINDS COULD GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH.
HEADING INTO LATE WEEK AND INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, EASTERN
PACIFIC RIDGING WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD, CAUSING MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OF THIS SCENARIO, WITH VERY STRONG POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES BUILDING ACROSS WESTERN CONUS GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS UNFORTUNATELY MEANS THAT FURTHER WARMING WILL BE AROUND
THE CORNER, PARTICULARLY BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PACKAGE,
AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CPC'S OUTLOOK OF HIGH PROBABILITIES (70-90%)
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. THE CURRENT
NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY 5 DEGREES OR
LESS, SO EVEN THE COOLEST SCENARIO WILL LIKELY STILL RESULT IN
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID-80S THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND
CONTINUING TO WARM INTO (AT LEAST) THE UPPER 80S GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK FOR LOWER DESERT LOCALES. WITH THESE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
DEVELOPING LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WE MAY
HAVE TO BEGIN MONITORING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL, AS NBM
PROBABILITIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 20-30% OF TYING OR BREAKING
THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR CENTRAL PHOENIX STARTING AS
EARLY AS THIS UPCOMING SUNDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0524Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
EXPECT THICK CIRRUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT
DOWNVALLEY/DRAINAGE PATTERNS (FAVORING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT) HAVE
STARTED TO DEVELOP AND WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. DURING THE LATE MORNING SUNDAY THERE MAY BE A SHORT LIVED
PERIOD OF MINOR GUSTINESS (UP TO 15KTS) AT KPHX. ANTICIPATE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE COHERENT WESTERLY DIRECTIONS DEVELOP BY 01Z MONDAY (SUSTAINED
SPEEDS AOA 6KTS).
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
EXPECT THICK CIRRUS CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH. THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT
DOWNVALLEY/DRAINAGE PATTERNS HAS STARTED (WLY AT KIPL; N/NWLY AT
KBLH). DURING THE AFTERNOON, ANTICIPATE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
(AOB 8KTS) TO RESUME AT KIPL WITH NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTIONS FAVORED
AT KBLH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY AN EVENING TRANSITION TO LIGHT
NOCTURNAL PATTERNS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAILY MINRH'S RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS REGION-WIDE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE WESTERN DISTRICTS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL AROUND 5-10 DEGREES THROUGH THIS WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...YOUNG
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG
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