732
FXUS65 KPSR 171132
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
432 AM MST MON FEB 17 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS WILL TRAVERSE OVER ARIZONA DURING THE
NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO DOMINATE OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC ANALYSIS REVEALS ZONAL FLOW STRETCHING ACROSS
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER STREAMING
OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO QUIET
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE START OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS.
A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL HELP TO TEMPER DOWN H5 HEIGHTS
OVER THE REGION, BUT THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL NOT CREATE ANY
NOTICEABLE IMPACTS. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, WITH H5 HEIGHTS
ALOFT DECREASING AND 850MB TEMPS HOLDING STEADY COMPARED TO
SUNDAY, IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE SIMILAR, IF
NOT SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE NBM
IS CALLING FOR A FEW DEGREE INCREASE IN DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES,
WITH THE LARGEST BUMP EXPECTED OUT WEST IN SE CALIFORNIA AND SW
ARIZONA. AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER THESE AREAS WILL REACH INTO THE
LOWER 80S AFTER READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S WERE OBSERVED
SUNDAY. THIS SLIGHT TEMPERATURE JUMP IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
FORECASTED DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN MORE
INSOLATION. AS FOR PHOENIX AND THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA, AFTER SUNDAY SAW READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S,
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SYSTEM SKIMMING PAST NORTHERN
ARIZONA ON TUESDAY, RESULTING IN A FURTHER SUPPRESSION OF HEIGHTS
ALOFT. THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE SAME TREND AS
THESE FALLING HEIGHTS, BUT A SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN IS NOT IN THE
CARDS AS HIGHS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S ACROSS LOWER DESERT AREAS. THE ENHANCED PRESSURE AND THERMAL
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TRANSIENT SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
MAINLY AROUND ENHANCED TERRAIN FEATURES IN SE CALIFORNIA, AND THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE, THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT WEAK RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, PROMOTING CONTINUED CALM CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.
HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND MOVING OVER
ARIZONA BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM, A PACKING
OF THE PRESSURE AND THERMAL GRADIENTS WOULD LIKELY PROMOTE MORE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SAME AREAS MENTIONED
ABOVE, WITH THE INCLUSION OF HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. ENHANCED GUSTS, COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND
VERY DRY FUELS, MAY POSE A MARGINAL FIRE RISK FOR THESE AREAS. WITH
MORE SEASONAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES BEING PROJECTED IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A FEW
DEGREES, BUT ONCE AGAIN, A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LOOKING BEYOND INTO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE MORE
DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH READINGS
POTENTIALLY REACHING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE END OF
FEBRUARY. IN FACT, THE NBM GIVES NUMEROUS LOCALS A 25-35% CHANCE
OF REACHING 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ALMOST 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1132Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT;
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS, MOSTLY AOB 8 KTS, WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXTENDED PERIODS OF CALM AND
LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. SCT TO BKN HIGH CIRRUS
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH DAILY MINRH'S RANGING IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
REGION-WIDE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE
NEXT ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 5-
10 DEGREES THROUGH THIS WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RW
AVIATION...YOUNG/SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG/RW
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