794
FXUS65 KPSR 191733
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1033 AM MST WED FEB 19 2025
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
DRY, WARM, AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION, ONE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
ANOTHER ON SATURDAY DELIVERING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FOCUSED
MORE OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LAST WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK, DELIVERING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH NEAR RECORD TERRITORY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITED TO THE EAST OF THE REGION EARLIER
YESTERDAY LEAVING CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS A
WEAK RIDGE MOVED OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL HOWEVER BE SHORT-LIVED
AND IT SHOULD ONLY BRING AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING
TO THE REGION TODAY. BY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
BEFORE TRAVERSING THE FOUR CORNERS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE PASSES BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS
OF 25-35 MPH SEEN ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY LITTLE COOLING WILL
BE REALIZED WITH THIS PASSING SYSTEM WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING A COUPLE DEGREES ON FRIDAY.
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND VERY LIKELY
EVEN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK AS A MUCH LARGER AND
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. INITIALLY ON SATURDAY, THE WARMING WILL BE FAIRLY MUTED
WITH HIGHS RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
STARTING SUNDAY, THE RIDGE WILL FULLY MOVE INTO OUR REGION WITH H5
HEIGHTS RISING TO AROUND 585DM, OR INTO THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE DATE. GUIDANCE SHOWS H8 TEMPERATURES WARMING
3-4C SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND ANOTHER 3C INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH. EITHER
WAY, ENSEMBLES HEAVILY FAVOR RIDGING PERSISTING ACROSS OUR REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. HIGHS MAY EVEN REACH 90
DEGREES FOR THE WARMEST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME,
WHICH IS AROUND A MONTH EARLIER THAN NORMAL. DAILY RECORDS FOR
PHOENIX MAY ALSO BE REACHED NEXT WEEK AS RECORDS ARE 91/92/91/92
DEGREES FOR MONDAY-THURSDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER
PATTERN MAY START TO BREAK DOWN LATER NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES
GENERALLY SHOW A TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY AROUND NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1730Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT AND DIURNAL WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
BELOW 7 KT. ALSO EXPECT CALM AND VARIABLE WINDS AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY DURING TRANSITIONAL PERIODS. HIGH-LVL CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE CLEARING
FROM W TO E LATE TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION. AFTER LIGHT WINDS TODAY, EXPECT PERIODS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO NEW MEXICO. EXPECT DAILY MINRHS MAINLY BETWEEN
10-15% AREAWIDE WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TO AROUND 30-35%.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S BY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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