523
FXUS65 KPSR 192327
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
427 PM MST WED FEB 19 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
DRY, WARM, AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BYPASS
TO THE NORTH, NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND
ANOTHER ON SATURDAY THAT WILL DELIVER SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS FOCUSED
MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND LAST WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK, DELIVERING WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH NEAR RECORD TERRITORY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
BY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE TRAVERSING THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES BY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH SEEN ACROSS THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. VERY
LITTLE COOLING WILL BE REALIZED WITH THIS PASSING SYSTEM WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING A COUPLE DEGREES ON FRIDAY, BUT STILL
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND VERY LIKELY
EVEN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK AS A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY, THE WARMING WILL BE FAIRLY MUTED WITH HIGHS
RIGHT AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. STARTING SUNDAY,
THE RIDGE WILL FULLY MOVE INTO OUR REGION WITH H5 HEIGHTS RISING TO
AROUND 585DM, OR INTO THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE
DATE. GUIDANCE SHOWS H8 TEMPERATURES WARMING 3-4C SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND ANOTHER 3C INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS A
CONTINUATION OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK RESULTING
IN UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY THE MID TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE PHOENIX METRO TO SEE TEMPS AOA 90F STARTING
MONDAY (20%), TUESDAY (45%), AND WEDNESDAY (65%). THIS IS AROUND A
MONTH EARLIER THAN NORMAL MEANING DAILY RECORDS FOR PHOENIX MAY
BE REACHED NEXT WEEK AS RECORDS ARE 91/92/91/92 DEGREES FOR
MONDAY- THURSDAY. THIS UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN MAY START
TO BREAK DOWN LATER NEXT WEEK AS ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHOW A WEAK
TROUGH ATTEMPTING TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
AROUND NEXT FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2325Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY AOB 8 KT, WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THEIR
TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. EXTENDED
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING DIURNAL SHIFTS. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS
WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT,
WITH SOME GUSTS UP AROUND 20-25 KT AT KBLH. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH FEW-SCT HIGH
CLOUDS RETURNING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION. AFTER LIGHT WINDS TODAY, EXPECT PERIODS OF BREEZY
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FIRST WEATHER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN INTO NEW MEXICO. EXPECT DAILY MINRHS MAINLY BETWEEN
10-15% AREAWIDE WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TO AROUND 30-35%.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S BY MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN/RYAN
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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