064
FXUS65 KPSR 201149
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
449 AM MST THU FEB 20 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
TRANQUIL AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND EVEN AS A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AND LAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, DELIVERING WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH NEAR RECORD
TERRITORY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DESPITE A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM
PASSING THROUGH UTAH INTO NEW MEXICO TODAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY DRY WITH ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING
NORTH AND EAST OF ARIZONA. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR OUR REGION WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN WINDS MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THOSE AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BARELY BUDGE FROM WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY STAYING IN THE UPPER
70S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, OR 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AFTER ANOTHER EVEN WEAKER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGES, A STRONG
RIDGE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. H5 HEIGHTS WILL
QUICKLY RISE TO ABOVE 580DM LATER SATURDAY BEFORE REACHING 585DM
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND STAYING PUT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK WITH H5 HEIGHTS PEAKING ON MONDAY BEFORE
LEVELING OUT BETWEEN 579-582DM THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THESE HEIGHTS WILL EASILY REACH INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE PERIOD, WHILE RESULTING IN STRONG WARMING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE WE
LIKELY SEE SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY. NBM
FORECAST TEMPERATURES RISE STEADILY FROM SUNDAY TO TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY, MID 80S MONDAY, AND
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S STARTING TUESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY DURING THE TUESDAY-
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, WHICH WOULD BE AROUND A MONTH EARLIER THAN
NORMAL. WE ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT PHOENIX REACHING INTO RECORD
TERRITORY AS DAILY RECORDS FOR PHOENIX ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
90S. LATER NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON A PACIFIC LOW
DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING AS IT
APPROACHES OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW IT SEEMS WE ARE
LIKELY TO ADD NEXT FRIDAY TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BEFORE WE FINALLY SEE SOME COOLING NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD AT THE MOMENT AS
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT POTENTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1147Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES AT ALL
TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO AT TIMES CALM DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. WEST WINDS INCREASE UP TO 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE MID-TEENS. FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA TODAY AND CLEAR THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WINDS WILL FAVOR A N TO NW COMPONENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS, WITH SOME LIGHT VARIABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN AOB 8 KTS AT KIPL WHILE SPEEDS
INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KTS AT KBLH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE AREA
TODAY AND CLEAR BY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. VERY SIMILAR WIND
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MINRHS MAINLY BETWEEN
10-15% WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TO AROUND 30-35%.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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