993
FXUS65 KPSR 202158
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
258 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE 4-CORNERS REGION TODAY
AND FRIDAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE, WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY AND REACH PEAK
STRENGTH BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH RECORD TERRITORY.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT IR WV AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER-LVL
LOW WHICH IS CHURNING OVER N UTAH. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT
THE BASE OF THIS LOW IS NOW APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS REGION
RESULTING IN AN TIGHTENING H5 HGHT GRADIENT ACROSS AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA. THE INCREASED GRADIENT/TRAILING MID-LVL JET HAS
RESULTED IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY AND AZ HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTS ARE
NOW REACHING 20-30 MPH. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH
FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG ANY RIDGETOPS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET WITH A QUITE NIGHT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL
SETTLE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON
THE HEELS OF TODAY'S SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND AZ HIGH TERRAIN. WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN
REACH 20-30 MPH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HITTING 30-40 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BE VERY DRY AND THUS LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS
ANTICIPATED, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS STILL
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT A SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP WILL TRANSPIRE AS A LARGE UPPER-LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. H5 HGHTS WILL RISE TO 580DM ON SATURDAY
BEFORE REACHING 585DM LATE SUNDAY. H5 HEIGHTS WILL FLUCTUATE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 580DM.
THESE H5 HGHTS ARE WELL ABOVE THE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE STEADILY (2-3 DEGREES EACH DAY) FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY, MID 80S MONDAY, AND MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY, WITH 90 DEGREE HIGHS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY. PHOENIX SKY HARBOR WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGHS REACHING 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN
MID-LVL TEMPERATURES ARE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. THERE
IS ALSO AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE OF REACHING RECORD HIGHS BOTH DAYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LATE NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON A PACIFIC LOW
DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING AS IT
APPROACHES OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW IT SEEMS WE ARE
LIKELY TO ADD NEXT FRIDAY TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BEFORE WE FINALLY SEE SOME COOLING NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD AT THE MOMENT AS
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT POTENTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1715Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON UNDER PERIODS OF SCT HIGH CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 20 KFT.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS, WITH A
WEST SWITCH ANTICIPATED ACROSS ALL THE TERMINAL BY 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY GUSTS INTO THE MID TEENS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB 10 KTS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WINDS WILL FAVOR A N TO NW COMPONENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN AOB 8 KTS AT KIPL
WHILE SPEEDS INCREASE UP TO 10-15 KTS AT KBLH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS OVER THE
AREA TODAY, CLEAR BY THIS EVENING, THEN RETURN FRIDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. VERY SIMILAR WIND
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MINRHS MAINLY BETWEEN
10-15% WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TO AROUND 30-35%.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SALERNO/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK/BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page