009
FXUS65 KPSR 202307
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
405 PM MST THU FEB 20 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TODAY
AND FRIDAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE, WARM AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY, AND REACH PEAK STRENGTH BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, RESULTING IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THAT COULD POTENTIALLY REACH RECORD TERRITORY.
DISCUSSION
CURRENT IR WV AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN UPPER-LVL LOW
WHICH IS CHURNING OVER N UTAH. A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT THE
BASE OF THIS LOW IS NOW APPROACHING THE 4-CORNERS REGION RESULTING
IN AN TIGHTENING H5 HGHT GRADIENT ACROSS AZ AND SOUTHEAST CA. THE
INCREASED GRADIENT/TRAILING MID-LVL JET HAS RESULTED IN BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND AZ
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WHERE GUSTS ARE NOW REACHING 20-30 MPH.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG ANY
RIDGETOPS. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET WITH A QUITE NIGHT
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY,
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE HEELS OF TODAY'S SYSTEM WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND AZ HIGH
TERRAIN. WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN REACH 20-30 MPH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
HITTING 30-40 MPH. THIS SYSTEM WILL AGAIN BE VERY DRY AND THUS
LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO STILL
REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS STILL
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WARM
UP WILL TRANSPIRE AS A LARGE UPPER-LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. H5 HGHTS WILL RISE TO 580DM ON SATURDAY BEFORE
REACHING 585DM LATE SUNDAY. H5 HEIGHTS WILL FLUCTUATE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 580DM.
THESE H5 HGHTS ARE WELL ABOVE THE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO RISE STEADILY (2-3 DEGREES EACH DAY) FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 80S SUNDAY, MID 80S MONDAY, AND MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES BY TUESDAY, WITH 90 DEGREE HIGHS
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY. PHOENIX SKY HARBOR WILL
LIKELY SEE HIGHS REACHING 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN
MID-LVL TEMPERATURES ARE MAXIMIZED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. THERE
IS ALSO AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE OF REACHING RECORD HIGHS BOTH DAYS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
LATE NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON A PACIFIC LOW
DEVELOPING WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA BY THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING AS IT
APPROACHES OUR REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW IT SEEMS WE ARE
LIKELY TO ADD NEXT FRIDAY TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
BEFORE WE FINALLY SEE SOME COOLING NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND ARE NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD AT THE MOMENT AS
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS NEXT POTENTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2305Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO WEATHER ISSUE WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER PERIODS OF
HIGH CIRRUS DECKS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT
BACK TO EASTERLY MID/LATE EVENING WITH KPHX POTENTIALLY HOLDING A
WEST COMPONENT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MORNING EAST WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL INTO EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BEFORE REVERTING BACK TO
WESTERLY WITH OVERALL SPEEDS UNDER 12KT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
ONLY SOME MODEST GUSTINESS WILL IMPACT OPERATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NORTHERLY GUSTS 20-25KT WILL BE MOST
PRONOUNCED AT KBLH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL
GUSTS LIKELY AT KIPL. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT DIRECTIONS AT KIPL
WILL SWING BETWEEN NORTH AND WEST DURING THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
AS A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS BY JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE REGION. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ELSEWHERE. VERY SIMILAR WIND
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY. LOW HUMIDITIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MINRHS MAINLY BETWEEN 10-
15% WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TO AROUND 30-35%.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK:
DATE PHOENIX YUMA EL CENTRO
---- ------- ---- ---------
FEB 24 91 IN 1904 93 IN 1986 92 IN 1986
FEB 25 92 IN 1921 95 IN 1986 94 IN 1986
FEB 26 91 IN 1986 96 IN 1986 95 IN 1986
FEB 27 92 IN 1986 95 IN 1986 96 IN 1986
FEB 28 89 IN 1986 97 IN 1986 92 IN 1986
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SALERNO
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
CLIMATE...18
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