202
FXUS65 KPSR 272204
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
304 PM MST THU MAR 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER TODAY'S MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90
DEGREES, A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH LOWER PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND LIKELY LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DAYTIME BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED STARTING TODAY AND
LASTING INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS ENTERING
INTO A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. THIS
PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BASED
ON LATEST GLOBAL MODELING. BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS
SUPPORT THE PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED, BUT WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY/LARGE MODEL SPREAD ACROSS THE FULL GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
SUITE. DURING THE QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN THERE WILL AT LEAST BE
SEVERAL LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL ROLE THROUGH
QUICKLY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EXPECTED
TOMORROW. THIS WILL HELP LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK DOWN A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S
INSTEAD OF THE 90S OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME BREEZIER
CONDITIONS EACH DAY ACROSS THE REGION, MOST NOTABLY ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHERN CA AND NORTHERN AND EASTERN AZ. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO SOME STRONGER WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CA, WITH DOWNSLOPING WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH THIS
EVENING AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY WHERE
HREF PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS >40 MPH IS UP TO 100% FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, AFTERNOON PEAK WIND GUSTS TOMORROW
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE AROUND 20-30 MPH.
THE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, LARGELY DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING WITH THE
WEAK PASSING SHORTWAVES AND LIMITED MOISTURE. AT MOST THERE WILL
BE SOME THICK HIGH CLOUDS AND HIGH LEVEL VIRGA AT TIMES.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE EPS FAVORING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING JUST
PAST OUR REGION TO THE NORTH, WHILE THE GEFS MOSTLY DIGS THIS
TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST. ADDITIONAL MODEL DIVERGENCE IS
SEEN THEREAFTER, BUT AT LEAST BOTH MODEL ENSEMBLE SUITES TRY TO
INDICATE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH MOVING INTO OR NEAR OUR REGION
BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES DO INTRODUCE A
LARGER SPREAD IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES STARTING NEXT WEDNESDAY
WITH THE UPPER END OF HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES TO THE LOWER END IN
THE 70S. WE MAY EVEN SEE SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL AROUND NEXT FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE POTENTIAL WEATHER
SYSTEM FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AND THE TIME OF YEAR, WE
SHOULDN'T EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1722Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES
WITH OVERALL SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 8 KTS. SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE METRO AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
INTO SCT-BKN BY TOMORROW MORNING. MAIN CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN
AOA 15KFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS WILL BEGIN LIGHT AND VRB BEFORE BECOMING
REESTABLISHED OUT OF THE W THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS
ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE AROUND SUNSET AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL OUT OF THE
S-SW, BECOMING ELEVATED WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-25 KTS AT TIMES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BATCH OF SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
INCREASED WINDS AND CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY CREATE A
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK CONCERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND. LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON
MINRHS AROUND 15-20% TO INCREASE THE FIRE THREAT BEGINNING TODAY.
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TODAY, BUT THEN EASE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL STARTING
TOMORROW. THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DAILY
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE LEVELS LOOKS LIKELY LATER NEXT
WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR
CAZ562.
DISCUSSION...BENEDICT/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SALERNO/RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/BENEDICT
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