473
FXUS65 KPSR 291717
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1017 AM MST SAT MAR 29 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND THE AZ
HIGH TERRAIN. BY THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER WEATHER
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO ARRIVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BRINGING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
LATEST MID-LVL SATELLITE WV IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ABUNDANCE OF HIGH
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
THIS TROUGH, WE WILL SEE A REINFORCEMENT OF NEGATIVE 500 MB HGHT
ANOMALIES OVERHEAD WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 20-25
MPH.
HEADING THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST REGION WHICH WILL
KEEP HIGHS RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS. MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PEAK AT 14-15C, RESULTING
IN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. THE 700-500 MB HGHT GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE REMAIN TIGHT
OVER THE FORECAST REGION WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE CALIFORNIA AND THE AZ
HIGH TERRAIN.
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, AN EQUATORWARD SHIFT IN THE UPPER-LVL
JETSTREAM WILL HELP INDUCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS ARE ACTUALLY IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGHING FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN EACH CONSECUTIVE DAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE LATEST 6-10 DAY CPC OUTLOOK. TEMPERATURE
WILL STEADILY COOL FROM THE U70S-L80S ON TUESDAY INTO THE L-M 70S
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. ALONG WITH DECREASING TEMPERATURES, THERE
WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AZ LATE
NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DURING THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WE WILL SEE AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY DISTURBANCES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING SUFFICIENT LIFT TO
SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. CURRENTLY NBM POPS REMAIN LOW (20-30%), AND ARE
MAINLY RELEGATED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS N AND E OF PHOENIX.
BOTH THE EPS AND GEFS ARE SHOWING VERY LOW PROBABILITIES <30% FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION (>0.01") ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
DESPITE THE LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ANY RAINFALL WOULD BE
WELCOMED DURING THIS TIME OF YEAR AS WE HEAD INTO OUR
CLIMATOLOGICAL DRIEST PERIOD (APR-JUN).
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1715Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
W/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
GO BACK EASTERLY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON (FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS) WITH FEW-SCT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
AT KIPL, WESTERLY WINDS, AROUND 8-12 KT, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON GUSTS UP AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING SPEEDS
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 8 KT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. AT KBLH, W/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. EXPECT PERIODS OF FEW-
SCT AND AT TIMES BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH DAY DOES LOOK TO
BE PROGRESSIVELY WINDIER FROM SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES WHERE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
REMAIN HEIGHTENED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 15-20% EACH AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR
AROUND 40-50%. THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN MOISTURE LEVELS BY
THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS A POTENTIAL STRONGER
WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WHETHER ANY PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, BUT CHANCES
FOR ANY WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SALERNO
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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