636
FXUS65 KPSR 292143
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
243 PM MST SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID EIGHTIES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS RESIDING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. A PATTERN
CHANGE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING CONTINUED BREEZINESS, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS TUESDAY, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND A LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SKIES HAVE CLEARED UP FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT SOME MORE THIN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A STREAM OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS 500MB HEIGHTS
IN THE REGION IN THE UPPER 560S DAM, WHICH IS AROUND THE 25TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THIS PATTERN
GOING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DESPITE THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY UNDER THE THIS PATTERN. MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS
WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH, WHILE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX SEE GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CWA WILL
BE IN IMPERIAL COUNTY, WHERE DOWNSLOPING ENHANCEMENTS WILL PUSH
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AND WIND GUSTS IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
COUNTY MAY GUST UP TO 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHWEST CORNER FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
MAY BE A COMMON ISSUANCE AS THE PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A PATTERN SHIFT IS STILL EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
GREATER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS, WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS PATTERN THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MOST NOTABLY
THIS PATTERN, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, MEANING LOWER
DESERT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 70S, AND CONTINUE THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE PROSPECT FOR RAIN IS NOT
GREAT WITH THIS LONGWAVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST NOT FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS, DUE LARGELY TO THE MORE CONTINENTAL TRACK OF THE
TROUGH AND SEASONAL TO SUB-SEASONAL MOISTURE LEVELS. LATEST NBM
POPS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. POPS NOW MAX OUT AT 10% IN THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGH POPS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. MEDIAN TOTAL QPF FROM GLOBAL ENSEMBLES IS NO MEASURABLE
RAIN FOR LOWER DESERTS AND THE 90TH PERCENTILE (10% CHANCE) IS
ONLY AROUND 0.1-0.2". THIS DOES NOT MEAN THERE WILL NOT BE ANY
RAIN SHOWERS AROUND, BUT DO NOT COUNT ON ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
WINDS LOOK LIKE THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT WITH THIS
PATTERN CHANGE, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY. STRONG PRESSURE PACKING AND
700MB WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS TUESDAY, AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPS
DOWN INTO THE AREA, WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE WIND GUSTS SHOWS WIDESPREAD
SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH. HOWEVER, THIS MAY TREND UPWARD
AS THE NBM IS KNOWN TO UNDERPLAY THE WINDS SLIGHTLY. IN ADDITION
TO THE WINDS, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING AND LOFTED DUST.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1715Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
W/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP AROUND 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
GO BACK EASTERLY AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON (FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS) WITH FEW-SCT MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
AT KIPL, WESTERLY WINDS, AROUND 8-12 KT, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON GUSTS UP AROUND 25
KT ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. BY LATE THIS EVENING SPEEDS
WINDS WILL DECOUPLE WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 8 KT THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. AT KBLH, W/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT. EXPECT PERIODS OF FEW-
SCT AND AT TIMES BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS.
FIRE WEATHER
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND AFTERNOON BREEZINESS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EACH DAY DOES LOOK TO
BE PROGRESSIVELY WINDIER FROM SUNDAY-TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF
MARICOPA AND GILA COUNTIES WHERE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED. WINDIEST DAY, AND HIGHEST FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN, IN THE FORECAST IS TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15-20% MOST AFTERNOONS, INCLUDING TUESDAY,
AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR AROUND 40-60%. A PATTERN
CHANGE NEXT WEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A LOW
CHANCE (10-20%) FOR SOME SHOWERS, MAINLY LATE WEEK, BUT CWR IS
CURRENTLY AROUND 0-5%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ562.
DISCUSSION...BENEDICT
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT/SALERNO
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