467
FXUS65 KPSR 011026
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
326 AM MST TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING
TODAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. WIDESPREAD ENHANCED BREEZINESS IS
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST CA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND ON AGAIN
FRIDAY, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FAVORING THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG WEST-EAST 500
MB JET ORIENTED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS STRONG JET IN
COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS THAT WILL IMPINGE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS THE TROUGH DIGS FURTHER
SOUTHWARD WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOST IMPERIAL COUNTY TO AROUND THE YUMA AREA,
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX IN SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY, WHERE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY AND
WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. ACROSS SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY, THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA FROM THE MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONG WINDS IN IMPERIAL COUNTY MAY
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST CAUSING BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE, AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WIND GUSTS
ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20-35 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
AS READINGS TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS, WHICH IS A GOOD 7-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SEND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE
AREA BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
DESPITE THE MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AS PWATS WILL ONLY RANGE
BETWEEN 0.3-0.5" WILL BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR LOCATIONS ABOVE 4500 FEET. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO CAUSE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO ONLY RANGE
BETWEEN 3-5 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES WITH MOST AREAS
LIKELY REMAINING STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WILL WARM SLIGHTLY BUT WILL REMAIN STUCK
IN THE LOWER 70S WITH MID 70S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS BY
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
BRINGING ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN EAST OF FRIDAY.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE TROUGHING PATTERN WEAKENING AND
GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD WITH 500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS RISING AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. AS A RESULT, A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES GOING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS BY NEXT SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
HEADING INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES
ADVERTISE THE RIDGE TO MOVE OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
TO WARM EVEN FURTHER WITH HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0540Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION FOCUS
DURING THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
W'RLY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TONIGHT ~20-25
KTS, AND MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND THE SAME MAGNITUDE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF PERSISTENT HIGH CIRRUS STREAMING IN OVER THE
REGION, A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS, WITH BASES AROUND 6-7K FT, SHOULD
BE ANTICIPATED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELEVATED WINDS ~15 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT A IPL, ALONG WITH SOME PERIODIC
GUSTS ~25 KTS, BEFORE MORE FREQUENT GUSTS CLOSER TO 30 KTS RESUME
BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. AT BLH, AFTER A PERIOD OF CALMER WINDS
TONIGHT, GUSTS ~25 KTS WILL RESUME ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH CIRRUS DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE
REGION, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS POPPING UP LATER IN
THE FORECAST TIMEFRAME.
FIRE WEATHER
AS A COLD WEATHER SYSTEM SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA, MAINLY IMPERIAL COUNTY, AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARICOPA AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AS
GUSTS UP TO 35-45 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH MINRHS RANGING BETWEEN 15-25% WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BUT STILL GUSTING
CLOSE TO 30 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
CA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX. LIGHTER WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. MINRHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
20-30% WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, BETWEEN 15-25% FRIDAY, AND BETWEEN
10-20% OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD
ON MOST DAYS, GENERALLY BETWEEN 40-70%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR
AZZ532.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
FOR AZZ558-560>563.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ560-563-565>567.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ562.
DISCUSSION...LOJERO
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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