663
FXUS65 KPSR 012221
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
321 PM MST TUE APR 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS TO
THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY HIGHER
TERRAIN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AND ON AGAIN FRIDAY, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY FAVORING
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORKWEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
EARLY AFTERNOON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL JET CONTINUING TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA. THE INCREASED GRADIENT AND HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS OF THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED
PEAK WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS OUR CWA,
WHILE A FEW AREAS HAVE SEEN GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY HIGH
TERRAIN AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY
PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THESE WINDS, BLOWING
DUST WILL BE A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY WHERE
WEBCAMS ARE SHOWING DUST BEING LOFTED THIS AFTERNOON. BLOWING DUST
COULD LEAD TO SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, BRINGING MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS SEND A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES OVER THE
AREA BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS
ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO
ARIZONA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE
MEAGER WITH PWATS AROUND 0.3-0.4", THE VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY ASCENT NEEDED TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE. HREF DATA SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FAVORING AREAS
TO THE NORTH OF PHOENIX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE CAPE
VALUES UP TO 100-200 J/KG BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY LEAD
TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR AREA
WILL REMAIN LIGHT GENERALLY AROUND SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE TO DEVELOP.
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WELL BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S FOR MANY LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARDS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THIS WEEK AS HEIGHT FIELDS GRADUALLY RECOVER. TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER,
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER TROUGHING. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS GOING INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE TROUGHING PATTERN WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
EAST THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO A MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION GOING
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. NBM SHOWS TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY BEFORE WARMING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
FAVOR STRONGER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST, BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1815Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS TO BECOME COMMON BY
18-19Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD RELAX TO
AOB 10 KTS BY 02-03Z THIS EVENING AND TEND TO BACK OUT OF THE SW-
SSW INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO EASTERLY SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A BKN DECK OF CIRRUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH A FEW-SCT DECK BASED BETWEEN 7-10 KFT
AGL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VFR CIGS AROUND 050-070 ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FILL IN WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE, THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WHILE THERE ARE LOW (10-25%)
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW, CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE
AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER BKN HIGH CLOUDS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW-
LEVEL CUMULUS NEAR BLH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KTS WILL
DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AT KIPL, WITH TEMPO HIGHER GUSTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST GUSTS AT KIPL WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOFTING
DUST, SO CANNOT RULE OUT SFC VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN MVFR VIS FROM BLOWING DUST/HAZE TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. AT KBLH, SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER, BUT STILL
EXPECT WESTERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS INTO THIS EVENING. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED
WITH MIN RHS AROUND 15-25% WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
FOCUSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, MAINLY ACROSS
IMPERIAL COUNTY, AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF MARICOPA AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR. WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20-35 MPH.
WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY BUT WILL LIKELY GUST
BETWEEN 15-30 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND ACROSS IMPERIAL
COUNTY. THERE WILL BE SOME MODEST RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
PHOENIX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE CWR WILL REMAIN LOW AT
10-20%. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY ERRATIC WINDS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. MINRHS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 20-30% WEDNESDAY-
THURSDAY, BETWEEN 15-25% FRIDAY, AND BETWEEN 10-25% OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD ON MOST DAYS,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 40-70%. WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR AZZ532.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ558-560>563.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ560-563-565>567.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ562.
DISCUSSION...SMITH/LOJERO
AVIATION...YOUNG/WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH/LOJERO
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