082
FXUS65 KPSR 022128
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
228 PM MST WED APR 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN NE
OF PHOENIX. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHCENTRAL AZ ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN WELL-BELOW NORMAL BEFORE A WARMING TREND
TAKES SHAPE STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BAND OF
SHOWERS WHICH IS NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AZ. THIS
BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT IS NOW
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. THE MAJORITY OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER N MARICOPA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND PORTIONS OF THE PHOENIX METRO AREA COULD RECEIVE A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH
INSTABILITY ALOFT (ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 100-150 J/KG) FOR A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES OR PEA SIZED HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
IT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
FROM ANY SHOWER BRINGS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH A QUIET NIGHT
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES WITH A FEW HIGH ELEVATION LOCATIONS SUCH AS GLOBE/MIAMI
AND WESTERN JOSHUA TREE GETTING DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY A FEW DEGREES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL-BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S BOTH DAYS. ON FRIDAY, THE
UPPER-LVL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WITH
500 MB HGHTS BECOMING CLOSED OFF OVER AZ. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL PASS
DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LARGE
SCALE LIFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX.
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND A RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE E PACIFIC. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY AND RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLES MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT RIDGING OVER THE E PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE RISING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, HGHTS ALOFT WILL
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER, BOOSTING TEMPERATURES TO WELL-
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. IN FACT, THERE IS A GOOD PROBABILITY THAT BY
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK MANY OF THE LOWER DESERTS COMMUNITIES
WILL OBSERVE THE FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1732Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
UNUSUAL TRENDS IN WIND DIRECTIONS, OCCASIONALLY STRONGER GUSTS,
AND PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS WILL ALL BE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST 050-070 AGL CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR BASES TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE TAF PERIOD, THOUGH THEY MAY HOVER NOT FAR FROM THE 060
THRESHOLD. GUSTY WSW WINDS 20-25KT ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE AROUND THE AIRSPACE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CONFIDENCE OF
GREATER COVERAGE AFFECTING SOME AERODROMES - PARTICULARLY KSDL AND
KDVT. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BY TOMORROW MORNING MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE SETTLING BACK OUT OF THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING UNDER PERIODS OF PASSING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY GUSTS
20-30KT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED IN DURATION AND MAGNITUDE AT KIPL
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS WILL BE FAR WEAKER AT KBLH, HOWEVER
WIND DIRECTIONS MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALBEIT
MOSTLY FAVORING A WESTERLY DIRECTION. SOME LOWER CIGS MAY DEVELOP
AT KBLH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO STAY FEW TO
SCT MOST OF THE TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH AND A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LOW AROUND 10-30%
WITH ONLY A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THIS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS NE OF PHOENIX. MINRHS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30% AREAWIDE ON
THURSDAY AND BETWEEN 10-25% FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND AZ HIGH TERRAIN. WELL-
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SALERNO
AVIATION...KUHLMAN/RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...LOJERO
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