406
FXUS65 KPSR 231943
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1243 PM MST WED APR 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND, DELIVERING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A COOLING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A RESULT OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS CONTINUES TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS SEEN MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN OREGON, HOWEVER, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION OTHER THAN
MAYBE RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED SUNDOWNER WINDS ACROSS
WESTERN IMPERIAL COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND SOME SLIGHTLY BREEZIER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE COMPARED TO THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE,
VERY STABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS AFTERNOON HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES.
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAKES ITS WAY FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MODEL ENSEMBLES DURING
THE LAST COUPLE OF ITERATIONS HAVE COME INTO A PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TRACK OF THIS LOW WITH THE SYSTEM
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL CA EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHTENING OF THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS ENHANCED
BREEZINESS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA,
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH AZ ON SATURDAY. THE ENHANCED BREEZINESS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE AZ HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WILL BE
COMMON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40+ MPH ACROSS THE
WIND PRONE AREAS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY AND THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN. ALONG
WITH THE WINDS, ANOTHER IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
COOLDOWN AS THE LATEST NBM INDICATE TEMPERATURES FALLING A GOOD
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STARTING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ON
SUNDAY AS READINGS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IS EXPECTED
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK, MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN FURTHER
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD 90S RETURNING
TO THE PICTURE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1700Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. TRENDS IN WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH PERIODS OF VARIABILITY AND/OR NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL TRANSITION. WHILE SOME MODEST WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE PHOENIX METRO THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE MORE PERSISTENT GUSTS AROUND 25KT WILL BE LIKELY AT
SE CALIFORNIA TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE AFTERNOON BREEZES AREAWIDE TODAY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT OTHER THAN THAT, EXPECT TYPICAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY. AN APPROACHING,
MORE POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL
INCREASE WINDS FRIDAY FOR THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND AREAWIDE BY
SATURDAY, LEADING TO LOCALLY ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR THE TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS, SUCH AS THE ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTERNOON
MINRHS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK BEFORE RISING SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND, IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS, THANKS TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR, GENERALLY BETWEEN 25-45% THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LOJERO
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...WHITTOCK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page