972
FXUS65 KPSR 241128
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
428 AM MST THU APR 24 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A
DRY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY DEGREES FOR A DAY OR TWO ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. EXPECT A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY RETURNING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB RAP ANALYSIS
REVEAL WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST US, WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A MORE
POTENT N-S ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC. AS
THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST LATE WEEK, BECOMES
A CLOSED LOW, AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE
WEEKEND, THE WEATHER WILL TURN MORE UNSETTLED. HOWEVER, FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS
WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS.
HIGHS TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (SLIGHTLY COOLER OUT WEST ON FRIDAY, IN
THE MIDDLE 80S.)
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE HEIGHT FALLS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT
IN A TIGHTENING OF THE REGIONAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS ENHANCED
BREEZINESS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA,
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH AZ ON SATURDAY. IN FACT, NAEFS/EPS MEAN
700 MB WIND SPEEDS EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY
STATEWIDE ON SATURDAY. THE ENHANCED BREEZINESS WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN AZ HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EARLY INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WIDESPREAD GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WILL BE COMMON, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40+ MPH ACROSS THE WIND PRONE AREAS
OF IMPERIAL COUNTY AND THE AZ HIGH TERRAIN. ALONG WITH THE WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, A SECONDARY IMPACT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE A COOLDOWN AS THE LATEST NBM INDICATES TEMPERATURES
FALLING A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL STARTING ON SATURDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN DESERTS AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE LIKELY TO ONLY REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F.
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS ENSEMBLES
ADVERTISE THE CLOSED LOW WEAKENING AND THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM'S
ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD. MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED
TO FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, THOUGH
A SLIGHT COMPLICATION TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK CUTOFF LOWS TO LINGER/MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN
COMPLETELY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AND WELL
INTO THE 90S DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1130Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT; AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TRENDS IN WINDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST
24 HOURS WITH PERIODS OF VARIABILITY AND/OR NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL TRANSITIONS. A FEW
AFTERNOON/EVENING BREEZES ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, PARTICULARLY AT KIPL WHERE GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS ARE
EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. EXPECT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY, WITH TYPICAL
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE BREEZINESS. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL INCREASE WINDS FRIDAY FOR THE
WESTERN DISTRICTS AND AREAWIDE BY SATURDAY, LEADING TO LOCALLY
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS, SUCH AS THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AS
A RESULT OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK BEFORE RISING SLIGHTLY THIS
WEEKEND, IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEENS, THANKS TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR, GENERALLY
BETWEEN 25-45% THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO 30-50% FOR THE
EASTERN DISTRICTS BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER (45-60%)
FOR THE WESTERN DISTRICTS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WHITTOCK
AVIATION...YOUNG/SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...WHITTOCK
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