684
FXUS65 KPSR 110554
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1054 PM MST SAT MAY 10 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT RANGING FROM 100-108.
THIS IS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT FULLY SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK TO LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK WILL
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECAUSE OF THESE TEMPERATURES. DAILY
BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY, TEMPERATURE WILL COOL AS IT
REACHES THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL WV IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
OVER THE REGION. PEAK H5 HEIGHTS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 584-586, CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO 100-108
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT, AND UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE TEMPERATURES HAVE RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK AND SOME MORE LOCALIZED MAJOR
HEATRISK FOR BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. SMART HEAT SAFETY OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL BE IMPORTANT. SO LIMIT OUTDOOR TIME, WEAR SUNSCREEN,
WEAR LIGHT/LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING AND STAY HYDRATED. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE COULD KEEP SOME LOCATIONS FROM REACHING
THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST.
TODAY BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED OUT OF THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE OVER
LOUISIANA AND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD TODAY. WIND
GUSTS TODAY WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE PEAK GUSTS, 25-35 MPH, WERE MOSTLY THIS MORNING. TOMORROW A
SIMILAR WIND PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD BUT SPEEDS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5
MPH LOWER.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA, MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND/VERY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THE EARLY APPROACH OF THIS
SYSTEM (MONDAY) TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER DESERTS WILL EVER SO
SLIGHTLY COOL WITH FORECASTED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE HIGH 90S, TO
LOW 100S. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER INTO WESTERN CONUS
(TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY), WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL COOLING, WITH
WEDNESDAY FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO HIGH 80S,
WHICH WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT THE
CENTER OF THE LOW WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH, RESULTING IN
OVERALL LACKLUSTER COOLING FOR THE REGION. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS
START TO DIFFER A LITTLE ON THE HOW LONG THE LOW WILL LINGER OVER
WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, MOST MEMBERS SHOW THE LOW WEAKENING, BUT
LINGERING ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0554Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 6-12 KTS THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER BREEZY MIXOUT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 15-19Z, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AND VEER SOUTHERLY MIDDAY AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
PERIOD OF 150V220 DEGREES FROM 20-23Z BEFORE SHIFTING MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH BASES STAYING
ABOVE 15K FT AGL.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
A N/NE DRAINAGE WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT
KBLH BEFORE SHIFTING S/SE BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS AT KIPL
WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT W/SW AND LIGHT VARIABILITY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOLLOWED BY A PREVAILING E/SE WIND MOST OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE W/SW AT BOTH
TERMINALS SUNDAY EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KT SUNDOWNER
WINDS AT KIPL. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. MINRHS WILL BE IN THE 7-15% RANGE THROUGH
MONDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH OUT OF THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE A LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SIMILAR WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 MPH LOWER THAN TODAY. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO EXPAND INTO THE WESTERN DISTRICTS TOMORROW. THESE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RHS COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
IN SOME AREAS THIS WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING COOLER
CONDITIONS IT WILL ALSO BRING MORE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BERISLAVICH/RYAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH/RYAN
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