224  
FXUS65 KPSR 111159  
AFDPSR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
459 AM MST SUN MAY 11 2025  
   
UPDATE  
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE  
LOWER DESERTS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF  
THIS COMING WEEK AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. DAILY  
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE  
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WELL. TEMPERATURES  
THEN RISE SLIGHTLY, RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL, FOR THE END OF THIS  
COMING WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING  
REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE STILL ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, A  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL OVER LOUISIANA, AND A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
STILL FIRMLY OVERHEAD WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO  
YESTERDAY. THE ONE SLIGHT CHANGE WILL BE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS  
MOVING IN LATER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
STARTING TO PUSH ONSHORE LATER TODAY. DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER  
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE  
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE 90S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
AREAS. THE CLOUD LAYER COULD KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM  
REACHING THE NBM FORECAST HIGHS, HOWEVER, THE CLOUD LAYER WILL  
LIKELY BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON THE  
TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE HOT TEMPERATURES THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE  
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MAJOR  
HEATRISK ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH THESE HOT TEMPERATURES  
MAKE SURE TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE SMART HEAT SAFETY BY LIMITING  
YOUR TIME OUTDOORS, WEARING SUNSCREEN, WEARING LIGHT LOOSE FITTING  
CLOTHES, AND STAYING HYDRATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN  
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE  
WITH SPEEDS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR  
SOUTHWESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEASTERN CA, WIND SPEEDS WON'T PICK UP  
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND  
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS  
GENERALLY AROUND 20- 30 MPH.  
 
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE AND EVENTUALLY PUSH  
INTO OUR REGION. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL  
NORTH OF OUR AREA IT WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR  
A COOLING TREND ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL  
COOL TO THE MID- TO-UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA AND  
SOUTHWESTERN AZ AND THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL  
AZ. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS  
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW NORMAL (AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S). TUESDAY IS FORECASTED  
TO BE THE COOLEST DAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN AZ  
AND WEDNESDAY IS FORECASTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY ACROSS SOUTH-  
CENTRAL AZ. ALTHOUGH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY IT  
WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION,  
MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. WIND GUSTS ARE  
FORECASTED TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE WITH THE  
HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN AZ AND THE  
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF EASTERN AZ. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN  
ISSUED FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY, FROM 5AM  
PDT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 5AM PDT WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHERE GUSTS  
COULD REACH UP TO 55 MPH.  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE  
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT INTO THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH REMAINING OVERHEAD. HEIGHTS  
ALOFT WILL RISE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR  
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS START TO DIFFER  
MORE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MOST SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH  
MOVING INTO WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, THEY DISAGREE ON THE EXACT  
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. EITHER WAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
UPDATED AT 1158Z.  
 
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:  
AN ENHANCED EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EASTERLY  
FLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE  
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WINDS AROUND 30-35 KTS JUST ABOVE THE  
SURFACE THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF CREATING SOME LLWS  
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN UNDER TAF THRESHOLDS SO  
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER BREEZY MIXOUT IS  
EXPECTED MID TO LATE MORNING STARTING AROUND 15Z WITH GUSTS  
UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS. GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE MORNING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DIRECTIONS VEERING TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE  
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:  
WINDS AT KIPL WILL TRANSITION TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS  
MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND  
20-25 KTS THIS EVENING AT KIPL. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY  
FAVOR A S-SW COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AFTERNOON  
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KTS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES  
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER  
DESERTS AND IN THE 90S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MINRHS WILL BE  
IN THE 7-15% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT  
INCREASE TO 15-25% ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA ON TUESDAY.  
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING  
AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ WITH SPEEDS  
DECREASING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR SE CA AND SW AZ WIND  
SPEEDS (20-25 MPH) WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF  
THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A DRY  
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH ARE  
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE  
ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN  
AZ. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS  
THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECASTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AZ...NONE.  
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ562.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...BERISLAVICH  
AVIATION...SMITH  
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH  
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