224
FXUS65 KPSR 111159
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
459 AM MST SUN MAY 11 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS COMING WEEK AS A DRY WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. DAILY
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS WELL. TEMPERATURES
THEN RISE SLIGHTLY, RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL, FOR THE END OF THIS
COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
UPPER LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING
REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE STILL ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL OVER LOUISIANA, AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
STILL FIRMLY OVERHEAD WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY. THE ONE SLIGHT CHANGE WILL BE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATER TODAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
STARTING TO PUSH ONSHORE LATER TODAY. DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER
FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND IN THE 90S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. THE CLOUD LAYER COULD KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE NBM FORECAST HIGHS, HOWEVER, THE CLOUD LAYER WILL
LIKELY BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT HAVE A BIG EFFECT ON THE
TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE HOT TEMPERATURES THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MAJOR
HEATRISK ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. WITH THESE HOT TEMPERATURES
MAKE SURE TO CONTINUE TO PRACTICE SMART HEAT SAFETY BY LIMITING
YOUR TIME OUTDOORS, WEARING SUNSCREEN, WEARING LIGHT LOOSE FITTING
CLOTHES, AND STAYING HYDRATED. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE
WITH SPEEDS TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR
SOUTHWESTERN AZ AND SOUTHEASTERN CA, WIND SPEEDS WON'T PICK UP
UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 20- 30 MPH.
HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE AND EVENTUALLY PUSH
INTO OUR REGION. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF OUR AREA IT WILL LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
A COOLING TREND ACROSS OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
COOL TO THE MID- TO-UPPER 90S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA AND
SOUTHWESTERN AZ AND THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ. FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW NORMAL (AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S). TUESDAY IS FORECASTED
TO BE THE COOLEST DAY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN AZ
AND WEDNESDAY IS FORECASTED TO BE THE COOLEST DAY ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. ALTHOUGH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH DRY IT
WILL BRING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION,
MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. WIND GUSTS ARE
FORECASTED TO PRIMARILY BE IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA AND SOUTHWESTERN AZ AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF EASTERN AZ. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF IMPERIAL COUNTY, FROM 5AM
PDT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 5AM PDT WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHERE GUSTS
COULD REACH UP TO 55 MPH.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A BROAD TROUGH REMAINING OVERHEAD. HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL RISE SLIGHTLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS START TO DIFFER
MORE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MOST SHOWING ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, THEY DISAGREE ON THE EXACT
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. EITHER WAY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1158Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
AN ENHANCED EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE EASTERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG WINDS AROUND 30-35 KTS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF CREATING SOME LLWS
CONCERNS. HOWEVER, EXPECT THIS TO REMAIN UNDER TAF THRESHOLDS SO
HAVE NOT ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. ANOTHER BREEZY MIXOUT IS
EXPECTED MID TO LATE MORNING STARTING AROUND 15Z WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS. GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DIRECTIONS VEERING TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WINDS AT KIPL WILL TRANSITION TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO THE WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KTS THIS EVENING AT KIPL. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY
FAVOR A S-SW COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25 KTS. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 100-108 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS AND IN THE 90S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MINRHS WILL BE
IN THE 7-15% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS A SLIGHT
INCREASE TO 15-25% ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CA ON TUESDAY.
BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING
AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AZ WITH SPEEDS
DECREASING HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FOR SE CA AND SW AZ WIND
SPEEDS (20-25 MPH) WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND TAPER OFF
THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A DRY
WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN
AZ. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS
THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECASTED TO FALL BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ562.
DISCUSSION...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page