173
FXUS65 KPSR 131205
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
505 AM MST TUE MAY 13 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SYNOPSIS
GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS AGAIN TODAY, AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
SATELLITE WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A
PACIFIC TROUGH CONTINUING TO ADVANCE INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST
WHILE EXPANSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
ARIZONA IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM LED TO WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS YESTERDAY WITH MANY
PLACES SEEING GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH AND LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT AS WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 25-35 MPH
ARE AGAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
FAVORING PARTS OF IMPERIAL COUNTY AND THE RIDGETOPS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF IMPERIAL
COUNTY, INCLUDING THE IMPERIAL VALLEY, TODAY WHERE GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING A FEW DUST CHANNELS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE DRY NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR TODAY.
WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST WEATHER IMPACT, HEIGHT FALLS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH 500 MB HEIGHTS DOWN TO
AROUND 570-574 DM WHILE THE GREATEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL
RESIDE NORTH OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH
WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS
FOR TODAY RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TO MID/UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY FURTHER DROP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA AS MOST LOWER DESERT LOCALES ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S.
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH, BROAD
CYCLONIC/QUASI ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK. NBM INDICATES MINIMAL IQR
SPREAD YIELDING EXCELLENT CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK AS HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY REBOUND DURING THIS TIME. FORECAST HIGHS BY THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK RETURN TO SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW
ANOTHER TROUGH PROPAGATING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS DISCREPANCIES AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP
REGARDING THE DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH. FOR NOW, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT WE WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE POPS AT THIS
TIME ARE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1205Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
WINDS HAVE GONE S-SE AT KIWA BUT HAVE REMAINED A WESTERLY
COMPONENT AT THE OTHER TAF SITES, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 7-12 KT. BY
LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALL TAF SITES WILL SEE WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KT CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. BY MID-EVENING
THE WIND GUSTS WILL START TO SUBSIDE BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A WESTERLY COMPONENT OVERNIGHT. CURRENT BKN HIGH CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT BECOMING FEW BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SCT THIS
EVENING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
GUSTY WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERNS AT THE SE CALIFORNIA
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KIPL AND SOUTHWESTERLY AT
KBLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, WINDS HAVE LESSENED A LITTLE
EARLY THIS MORNING, HOWEVER GUSTS OF 25-30 KT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL THEN PICK
UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. GUSTS WILL FINALLY START TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. AT KBLH, WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED THIS MORNING, BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED. FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS STRONG WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS CLIMBING UPWARDS OF
25-35 MPH AND LOCALIZED GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
IMPERIAL COUNTY AND ALONG RIDGETOPS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. MIN
RHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 8-15% FOR MOST AREAS WHILE
OVERNIGHT MAX RHS CLIMB INTO THE 25-50% RANGE. EXPECT A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WEEK, WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE BREEZES FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR AZZ133.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ563-566-567.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH
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