885
FXUS65 KPSR 141024
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
324 AM MST WED MAY 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL DELIVER BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TODAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL READINGS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK YIELDING
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH THAT HAS LED TO
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CURRENTLY
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS GRADIENTS RELAX AND THE
GREATER WIND ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING
GUSTINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE
GUSTS MAY CLIMB UPWARDS OF 20-30 MPH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES GUSTING UPWARDS OF 15-25 MPH AT
TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY
WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PREVAIL AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA WITH THE MAIN COLD CORE REMAINING
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 568-572 DM. HOWEVER, THESE COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DON'T STICK AROUND FOR LONG AS THE TROUGH
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WITH BROAD CYCLONIC/QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS FOR THE END OF
THE WORKWEEK. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THIS TIME AND
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN NEAR NORMAL READINGS
THURSDAY AS LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT TROUGH. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
REVEAL CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP RELATED
TO THE THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN
THE NBM TEMPERATURE IQR WITH A ROUGHLY 6-8 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THERE
IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLES THAT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG
WINDS. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD, WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS WEEKEND, PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF
IMPERIAL COUNTY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH, THERE IS
DECENT ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0525Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED OUT OF THE WSW THROUGH THE EVENING
AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS DIRECTION THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL RELAX TO AOB 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HRS IF THEY HAVE NOT ALREADY. DIRECTIONS MAY TRY TO SHIFT S-SE OR
BECOME VRB FOR A PERIOD WEDNESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE S-SE WINDS AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KIWA. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT TEMPO VRB GROUPS AT THE
OTHER SITES, WITH SPEEDS AOB 6 KTS LIKELY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING OUT OF THE WEST, BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
AOB 11 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, OTHER THAN FEW PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS AT TIMES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THOUGH SPORADIC GUSTS TO AROUND 30-35 KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT KIPL
LATE THIS EVENING, CHANCES FOR THESE HIGHER GUSTS WILL DWINDLE
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SURFACE TRIES TO DECOUPLE.
EXPECT SW WINDS AT KBLH AND W WINDS AT KIPL OVERNIGHT TO SHIFT
NORTHWEST BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. SPEEDS WEDNESDAY WILL BE
LIGHTER, MOSTLY AOB 12 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS
LIKELY AT KBLH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
WEAKENING WIND SPEEDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE THE FIRE
DANGER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER ANOTHER INCOMING SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. UNDER MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME UPSLOPE GUSTINESS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH, MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10-15% RANGE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS FOLLOWING POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 25-50%. GUSTY
WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
DISTURBANCE, HOWEVER COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME,
SATURDAY AFTERNOON POSES THE GREATEST THREAT OF AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CAZ562.
DISCUSSION...SMITH
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH/18
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