809  
FXUS65 KPSR 141149  
AFDPSR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
449 AM MST WED MAY 14 2025  
   
UPDATE  
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL DELIVER BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TODAY BEFORE WARMING BACK TO NEAR  
NORMAL READINGS FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. ANOTHER DRY WEATHER  
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP INTO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK YIELDING  
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE TROUGH THAT HAS LED TO  
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS CURRENTLY  
PROPAGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL BE  
MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS GRADIENTS RELAX AND THE  
GREATER WIND ENERGY ALOFT SHIFTS EAST. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING  
GUSTINESS THAT IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE, INCLUDING SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE  
GUSTS MAY CLIMB UPWARDS OF 20-30 MPH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA, TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES GUSTING UPWARDS OF 15-25 MPH AT  
TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE MORE NOTABLE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TODAY  
WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL PREVAIL AS THE TROUGH  
AXIS PASSES THROUGH ARIZONA WITH THE MAIN COLD CORE REMAINING  
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AS 500 MB  
HEIGHTS BOTTOM OUT AROUND 568-572 DM. HOWEVER, THESE COOLER THAN  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES DON'T STICK AROUND FOR LONG AS THE TROUGH  
EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WITH BROAD CYCLONIC/QUASI-  
ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS FOR THE END OF  
THE WORKWEEK. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THIS TIME AND  
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN NEAR NORMAL READINGS  
THURSDAY AS LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER  
90S.  
 
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE START OF  
NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF OUR NEXT TROUGH. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS  
REVEAL CONTINUED DISCREPANCIES AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP RELATED  
TO THE THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN  
THE NBM TEMPERATURE IQR WITH A ROUGHLY 6-8 DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THERE  
IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLES THAT WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG  
WINDS. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD, WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR THIS WEEKEND, PRIMARILY ACROSS PARTS OF  
IMPERIAL COUNTY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH, THERE IS  
DECENT ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO  
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE  
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
UPDATED AT 1145Z.  
 
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:  
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS AT  
KPHX AND KDVT MAY BRIEFLY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS  
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT THROUGH THE  
PERIOD WITH SOME INCREASED WINDS INTO THE LOW TEENS FOR THE  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL RETURN TO THEIR  
TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES LATE THIS EVENING WITH KSDL AND KDVT  
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND KPHX AND KIWA GOING EASTERLY FOR THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THIS  
MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF  
PERIOD.  
 
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:  
CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS WILL GO NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY LATER THIS  
MORNING THEN BACK WESTERLY THIS EVENING AT BOTH TAF SITES. WIND  
SPEEDS AT KIPL WILL BE IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING BUT DECREASE TO  
AOB 10 KT BY LATE THIS MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF  
PERIOD. AT KBLH, WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS  
AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT.  
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THIS  
EVENING.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
WEAKENING WIND SPEEDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE THE FIRE  
DANGER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER ANOTHER INCOMING SYSTEM WILL  
ALLOW WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. UNDER MORE TYPICAL  
SPRINGTIME UPSLOPE GUSTINESS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15-25 MPH, MINIMUM  
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10-15% RANGE THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS FOLLOWING POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 25-50%. GUSTY  
WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT WEATHER  
DISTURBANCE, HOWEVER COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY  
LEVELS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME,  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON POSES THE GREATEST THREAT OF AN ELEVATED FIRE  
DANGER.  
 
 
   
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AZ...NONE.  
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CAZ562.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...SMITH  
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH  
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH/18  
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