776  
FXUS65 KPSR 142022  
AFDPSR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ  
120 PM MST WED MAY 14 2025  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
1) NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT  
WEEK  
 
2) GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A LOCALLY ELEVATED  
FIRE DANGER  
 
3) POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM WEATHER RETURNING TOWARDS THE LATTER  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK  
 
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:  
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY DEPICTS ONE VORTICITY CENTER LIFTING  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE LINGERING WEAKNESS IN THE MIDLEVEL  
HEIGHT FIELDS AND SOME MEASURE OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING HOVERS OVER THE  
SW CONUS. H5 HEIGHTS WILL REACH A MINIMUM NEAR 570DM TODAY THOUGH  
ONLY MODEST HEIGHT RISES WILL COMMENCE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH  
READINGS APPROACHING 576DM UNDER A BROADLY CYCLONIC/ZONAL-FLOW TYPE  
PATTERN. CORRESPONDING MIDDLE AND LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES  
SHOULD RESPOND ACCORDINGLY RESULTING IN READINGS RETURNING TO A NEAR  
NORMAL LEVEL THOUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
ENSEMBLES STILL EXHIBIT MODEST FORECAST SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO  
STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY BUCKLING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS  
NORTHERN STREAM PV FILLS INTO THE VOID LEFT IN THE SOUTHWEST BY THE  
SYSTEM CURRENTLY EJECTING EASTWARD. TRENDS AMONG THE ENTIRE ENSEMBLE  
SUITE FAVORS A CONCEPTUAL MODEL MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS  
WITH A PREFERENCE TOWARDS A DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION, THOUGH THERE  
IS STILL A MINORITY OF EVIDENCE SHOWING A SINGULAR, FAST MOVING  
SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, A SERIES  
OF VORTICITY CENTERS WILL PIVOT AND DIG THROUGH THE TROUGH BASE  
DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH H5 HEIGHTS PLUMMETING  
CLOSE TO 560DM OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. WHILE THIS WILL CERTAINLY BRING  
ANOTHER BRIEF RESPITE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
THE PATTERN CHARACTERIZED BY THE JUXTAPOSITION OF ROBUST HEIGHT  
FALLS AND STRONG BASAL JET CORE SHOULD YIELD A ROUND OF VERY GUSTY  
WINDS, LOCALLY REACHING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS AND  
NECESSITATING SOME WIND ADVISORIES.  
 
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK, THE PREPONDERANCE OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERSHIP SUGGESTS RIDGING MORE  
AGGRESSIVELY BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THERE IS A NOTABLE SUBSET OF  
MODELS SUGGESTING SOME AMOUNT OF LINGERING TROUGHING PRECLUDING  
RAPID HEIGHT RISES, HOWEVER THE PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD TEND TO  
FAVOR A QUICKER RETURN TO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS. IN THE  
END, IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR H5 HEIGHTS TO ECLIPSE  
588DM AND TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE CLOSER TO 10F ABOVE THE DAILY  
NORMALS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:  
NARROW GUIDANCE SPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK HAS YIELDED VERY  
GOOD CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. THIS FORECAST  
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING  
THE DEPTH AND SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXPANDS. HAD TO REMOVE THE  
TYPICAL BOGUS NBM POP ARTIFACTS THROUGH PARTS OF THE FORECAST IN  
ADDITION TO VARIOUS UNREALISTIC QPF GRIDS. STRANGELY, THE PORTION OF  
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE GREATEST SHOWER POTENTIAL (MONDAY  
AFTERNOON) HAD VERY LITTLE REFLECTION IN THE MANDATED NBM  
INITIALIZATION, AND WOULD EXPECT AN EVENTUAL INCREASE IN THESE  
AUTOMATED FORECAST VALUES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
UPDATED AT 1605Z.  
 
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:  
WINDS WILL FOLLOW THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD. CURRENT WESTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE THEIR TYPICAL SHIFT TO  
EASTERLY DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A SHIFT BACK  
WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ELEVATED THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE  
TEENS. OTHERWISE, WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 8 KT. SKIES WILL  
BE MOSTLY CLEAR.  
 
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:  
WINDS, AT BOTH TAF SITES, WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING WESTERLY THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS AT KIPL  
WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT. AT KBLH, WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE TEENS  
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON, THEN AFTERWARDS SPEEDS WILL  
DECREASE TO AOB 8 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
WEAKENING WIND SPEEDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL REDUCE THE FIRE  
DANGER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, HOWEVER ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL  
CREATE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND. UNDER TYPICAL SPRINGTIME  
UPSLOPE GUSTINESS WITH GUSTS 15-25 MPH, MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL  
FALL INTO THE 10-15% RANGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWING POOR TO  
FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY OF 25-50%. GUSTY WINDS WILL MATERIALIZE  
AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE, HOWEVER  
COOLING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY PRECLUDE  
WIDESPREAD OR PROLONGED CRITICAL CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME, SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON POSES THE GREATEST THREAT OF AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN  
EASTERN DISTRICTS.  
 
 
   
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AZ...NONE.  
CA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...18/SMITH  
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH  
FIRE WEATHER...SMITH/18  
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