723
FXUS65 KPSR 161723
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1023 AM MST FRI MAY 16 2025
UPDATE
18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND RESULTING ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA
2) NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE WE SEE
A WARMING TREND AND ABOVE (ROUGHLY 5-10 DEGREES) NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE NEXT WEEK
3: WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE NEXT
WEEK AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH HEIGHTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SLOWING RISING
ALLOWING FOR SOME MODEST WARMING. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S TO AROUND 95
DEGREES, OR RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY
OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA, BUT IT IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS REACHING CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
NORTHERN ARIZONA LATER SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE THE INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF
IMPERIAL CO. FOR THIS TIME WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH INTO THE
IMPERIAL VALLEY WHICH IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST BRING SOME LOFTED
DUST. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ARE LIKELY TO GUST BETWEEN 20-30 MPH AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE SATURDAY DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF
OUR REGION SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ONE QUICKLY
FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY BEFORE LIKELY REACHING NORTHERN ARIZONA BY EARLY MONDAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL STAY COMPACT ENOUGH ON SUNDAY TO PROVIDE FOR
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY, BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
MODESTLY COOLER AIR WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, LOWERING HIGHS SUNDAY TO BETWEEN 85-90 DEGREES. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A MINOR INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. DESPITE THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO
STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH ANY SHOWER CHANCES LIKELY CONFINED TO
THE ARIZONA HIGH COUNTRY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD
ALSO BRING SOME INCREASED NORTHERLY BREEZINESS FOCUSED DOWN THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AS DRIER AIR BEGINS SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL
EJECT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINNING TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY SETTLES OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, WE ARE EXPECTING
TO SEE A RETURN OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGHS LIKELY REACHING OR
TOPPING 100 DEGREES AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE LARGE SCALE
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT KEEPING THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND LIKELY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE FORECAST
H5 HEIGHTS, BUT FOR NOW IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE
MAY BE AROUND NEXT FRIDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL MINOR FLATTENING OF
THE RIDGE OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH HIGHS PEAKING AT OR JUST ABOVE 105 DEGREES ON
THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY, BUT WITH A SLIGHT LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES
OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. EITHER WAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
MODERATE HEATRISK DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECASTS REMAINS VERY GOOD THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY, AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP DIGGING
FARTHER SOUTH INTO ARIZONA, WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS
CLOSER TO SUNDAY'S COMPARED TO SOME SLIGHT WARMING THE CURRENT NBM
FAVORS. KEEPING IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES,
CONTINUED TO ADJUST THE WINDS HIGHER OVER THE WEEKEND, FOCUSED
MORE OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE HOTTER
TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINS GOOD, BUT SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES (MAYBE A 1-3
DEGREES HIGHER) MAY EVENTUALLY OCCUR, ESPECIALLY OVER THE MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1722Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TERMINALS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MORE NW'RLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING.
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 8 KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
INTERMITTENT GUSTS INTO THE TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE PHOENIX
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. KIPL WILL BE E'RLY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, GOING W'RLY BY
TONIGHT. KBLH WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY S'RLY. WINDS AT BOTH TERMINALS
WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10KTS, BUT LOOK TO INCREASE NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT KBLH WITH SPEEDS INCREASING INTO
THE TEENS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF SEASONABLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS BEFORE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE MARKEDLY SATURDAY
RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS. MINRHS WILL REACH 10-15% TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN DISTRICTS WITH READINGS ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS
IMPROVING TO 20-25% SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE FAIR TO
POOR WITH READINGS BETWEEN 20-30% OVER THE EASTERN DISTRICTS AND
30-50% OVER THE WESTERN DISTRICTS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL
BE COMMON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED STRONGER SPEEDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS. VERY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
MUCH WEAKER AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ563-
566-567.
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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