565
FXUS65 KPSR 021735
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 AM MST MON JUN 2 2025
UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH, WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CHANCES IN HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TOWARDS
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL LATE
WEEK
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION ENJOYED SOME RAINY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY,
AS MOST AREAS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA SAW AT LEAST 0.25". THE
MORE ROBUST SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH THE PRIMARY DRIVER BEING THE LOW CENTER
PASSING OVER THE PHOENIX METRO THAT IS TAPPING INTO SOME
UNINHIBITED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500-100 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. THE ALREADY MOISTENED PROFILES FROM
YESTERDAY'S RAINS IS ALLOWING FOR MORE EFFICIENT RAINS TO REACH
THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WEST
VALLEY NEARING OR EXCEEDING 1.00" IN SOME AREAS WITH TRAINING
SHOWERS. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH THE LOW CENTER, WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION, RESULTING IN LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX LATER TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO ERODE THE TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION. THUS, EVEN THOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER TROUGHING FEATURE
FOLLOWING THIS CURRENT LOW, THERE IS NOT MUCH OPTIMISM OF MORE
RAIN POTENTIAL BEYOND TODAY ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CHANCES (10-25%) REMAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, THIS FEATURE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLY DRY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS, THUS KEPT RAIN TO
JUST ISOLATED CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY.
GENERAL LONGWAVE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST GOING THROUGH LATE WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE EXITING
MID-WEEK TROUGH WILL RESULT IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS REBOUNDING BACK
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS NEAR 582-585 DAM. SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX MID
TO LATE WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING A PRETTY EXPANSIVE 591 DAM
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES THEN SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT OF THIS RIDGE ERODING THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING INTO
THE 585-588 DAM RANGE BY THIS WEEKEND. THUS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH TODAY BEING THE COOLEST (BELOW
NORMAL). NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WILL PRECEDE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS THE NBM IQR
NEARS THE MID TO UPPER 100S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS OVER THE
WEEKEND. THUS, A RETURN OF MODERATE HEATRISK TO THE REGION BY THIS
WEEKEND SEEMS INEVITABLE DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE PATTERN
EVOLUTION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1735Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
SKIES WILL FEATURE FEW TO SCT CUMULUS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
BASES RISING FROM 4-5K FT AGL NOW UP TO 7-8K FT AGL THIS
AFTERNOON. SKIES THEN CLEAR TONIGHT. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS NOW WILL
ESTABLISH OUT OF THE WEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS
MOSTLY AROUND 5-10 KTS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS RETURN TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT
KIPL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING,
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
LINGERING WETTING RAINS (50-80%) WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
EASTERN DISTRICTS, BUT WETTING RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW (15% OR
LESS). THIS ABNORMALLY WET PATTERN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK
TO MORE TYPICAL DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MID TO
LATE WEEK, AS MINRH'S DEGRADE FROM 25-50% TO 15-25% BY MID-WEEK
WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES REMAINING GOOD TO EXCELLENT (ABOVE 40%)
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATE WEEK RH'S WILL CONTINUE TO DEGRADE NEAR
10-15% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BECOMING POOR TO FAIR (20-40%).
OUTSIDE OF ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY IN
THE WEEK, WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SPRING WITH THE
USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...YOUNG
AVIATION...BENEDICT/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG/18
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