814
FXUS65 KPSR 031157
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
457 AM MST TUE JUN 3 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUNDING TOWARDS NORMAL LEVELS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN BEHIND THE EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT A GOOD DEAL OF RAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. SURFACE DEW
POINTS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S, WHILE
LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS ARE AROUND 7 G/KG. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SITTING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,
BUT IT CONTAINS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE. THE LOW'S STRENGTH IS
HOWEVER FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO THE ONE THAT WENT THROUGH ON SUNDAY.
AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY REACHING NORTHERN
AREAS OF BAJA AND FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, IT WILL INTERACT WITH
THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, LIKELY RESULTING IN A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARIZONA.
THE 00Z HREF SHOWS MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TO UPWARDS OF 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. FORCED ASCENT FROM THE INCOMING LOW AND THE
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL RIVERSIDE COUNTY,
INCLUDING JTNP, BEFORE EVENTUALLY EXPANDING INTO IMPERIAL COUNTY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR IMPACTS FROM THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL.
THE LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE RAINFALL RATES ON THE
LOWER SIDE, SO UNLESS THERE IS TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS THE
THREAT FOR ANY FLOODING IS FAIRLY LOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO, WILL SEE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. THERE
IS HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME SHOWER POTENTIAL MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE MORE LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA, POPS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AT
AROUND 10-15% FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING
ON HOW THE HI-RES CAMS EVOLVE TODAY, IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING
FOR THE NEED TO INCREASE THOSE POPS MARGINALLY HIGHER.
THE PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK WITH A SUB-TROPICAL HIGH CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BECOMING THE MAIN INFLUENCE OVER OUR WEATHER. WHILE THIS
TRANSITION OCCURS, SEASONABLY DRY AIR WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE
40S ON THURSDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE 30S ON FRIDAY. H5 HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE FROM AROUND 582DM ON THURSDAY TO 588DM BY
SATURDAY. THE INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND DRYING CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS TOPPING
100 DEGREES BY FRIDAY, TO AROUND 105 DEGREES SATURDAY, BEFORE
POTENTIALLY PEAKING NEAR 110 DEGREES FOR NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN MOSTLY FAVORS THE RIDGE RETREATING MORE TO
THE SOUTH ALLOWING A WEAK LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO BRING SOME SLIGHT
COOLING INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. SO FAR, THE PEAK
TEMPERATURES FOR THE RIDGE FOR THE WEEKEND ARE MORE LIKELY TO STAY
JUST UNDER 110 DEGREES, BUT THE NBM'S 75TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURES DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WARMEST DESERT LOCATIONS
TO REACH 110 DEGREES. IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION LATER THIS WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1155Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AT MOST
TAF. A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY CROSSWINDS CAN BE POSSIBLE BEFORE GOING
WSW BY THE AFTERNOON AND WELL INTO THE EVENING. AN INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
RELAXING FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FEW-SCT CLOUD COVERAGE WITH
BASES GENERALLY AOA 10KFT WILL BE COMMON FOR MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KBLH THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS AT KIPL WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE W BY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
BE AOB 10 KT AT KIPL AND AROUND 5-15 KT AT KBLH, WITH THE HIGHER
SPEEDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS AT KIPL.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE LATER IN
THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
A SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A (MOSTLY DRY) WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE
REGION. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (20%
CHANCE) ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
CHANCES FOR MOSTLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY ELEVATED WITH MINRHS ABOVE 20-25%, WHILE OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY REMAINS GOOD AT ABOVE 50-60% TONIGHT AND 40-50%
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE SPRING
WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS. THIS PATTERN WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO MORE TYPICAL DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK. MINRHS WILL DROP BACK
INTO THE TEENS ON THURSDAY TO AS LOW AS THE 5-10% RANGE BY THE
WEEKEND.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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