028
FXUS65 KPSR 061715
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1015 AM MST FRI JUN 6 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES PEAKING AROUND 110 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK EXPECTED STARTING
SATURDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS TROUGHING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC THAT
IS CHANNELING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW. THIS INFLUX OF
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SCOUR OUT THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES
GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO HELP FACILITATE
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH
TODAY EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
CURRENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE DESERT SW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
AND RETROGRADE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC AS RIDGING BEGINS TO
BUILD IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CREATING A REX BLOCK PATTERN OVER
WESTERN CONUS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL MIGRATES WESTWARD HELPING
BUILD THE 500MB HEIGHTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE DESERT
SW. WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE, WE CAN START TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY-
MONDAY TIME FRAME 500MB HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, PEAKING NEAR
588-591 DM. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS BETWEEN 106-111 DEGREES, 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 110 OR ABOVE STARTING SUNDAY ARE NOTABLY
HIGHER IN SOUTHEASTERN CA AND ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY,
PEAKING ON MONDAY WITH A 40-70% CHANCE, WHILE THE PHOENIX AREA IS
AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE. DUE TO THESE INCREASED TEMPERATURES,
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL DEVELOP STARTING SATURDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THIS WILL LEAD TO THE TEMPERATURES
COOLING SLIGHTLY AS 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO WEAKEN. BY LATE NEXT WEEK
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER TROUGHING FEATURE THROUGH
WESTERN CONUS WHICH CAN CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO COOL BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS. THE ENSEMBLES ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ANY NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BEING
HOW AMPLIFIED THIS TROUGH BECOMES. REGARDLESS OF THESE
DIFFERENCES, THE NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES SUGGEST THE REGION WILL
BE BACK TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL BY THIS TIME, WITH THE TEMPERATURE
SPREADS BEING ONLY A FEW DEGREES APART. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1715Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL OVERALL FAVOR LIGHT, DIURNAL
TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY REMAINING BELOW 10 KTS. EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AT KSDL
AND KDVT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL PREDOMINANTLY REMAIN OUT OF
THE E/SE AT KIPL AND S AT KBLH, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
DRYING CONDITIONS AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON MINRHS WILL DECREASE FROM 10-15% TODAY TO
7-12% BY SATURDAY AS LOWER DESERT HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO
THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS, WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. OVERNIGHT RHS WILL ALSO DECREASE TO 25-35% TONIGHT FOR MOST
PLACES BOTTOMING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AT 15-30%. WINDS
SHOULD FOLLOW FAIRLY TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH PERIODIC
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS. THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND DAILY MINRHS MOSTLY IN A 5-10% RANGE.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RYAN
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/SMITH
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