211
FXUS65 KPSR 081025
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
325 AM MST SUN JUN 8 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING
UPWARDS OF 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THIS WEEK
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK
RELAXING SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WESTERN CONUS, WITH A TRAPPED CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF CONUS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. AS
THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD, HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER OUR
AREA WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED (AROUND 588 DM). THEREFORE,
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK IS STILL EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH LOWER
DESERT COMMUNITIES NEARING THE 110 DEGREE MARK. THE NBM CONTINUES
TO SHOW AREAS IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH THE BEST ODDS (70-90%)
OF HITTING 110, WITH AREAS ACROSS THE SW DESERTS OF AZ HAVING A
50-70% CHANCE, WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 50% IN THE PHOENIX METRO.
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH MIDWEEK. MAKE SURE TO
PRACTICE SMART HEAT SAFETY BY LIMITING YOUR TIME OUTDOORS AND
DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER.
MODELS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK A BROAD TROUGH WILL START TO TRY
AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL SLIGHTLY DAMPEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OUR AREA, WITH HEIGHTS ONLY LOWERING TO AROUND 585-587
DM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT COOLING TREND OF A COUPLE DEGREES,
MOST NOTABLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. THIS SLIGHT COOLING WILL
ALLOW FOR THE MODERATE HEATRISK TO BECOME MORE LOCALIZED ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THIS WON'T LAST LONG AS GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PUSHING INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND AND STRENGTHENING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND (WITH H5 HEIGHTS APPROACHING
591- 595 DM). THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO HEAT BACK UP AND
APPROACH THE 110 MARK AGAIN, WHICH WILL ALSO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0530Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCY WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS.
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE TRANSITION PERIODS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT KIPL WILL TRANSITION OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH A TRANSITION BACK
OUT OF THE WEST EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AT KBLH WILL FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AOB 10 KTS, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD SUNDAY EVENING
WHERE SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIPL.
PERIODS OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE LIKELY AS WELL.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK. MINRHS WILL BE BELOW 10% TODAY AND TOMORROW AND IN THE
8-15% RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. POOR TO FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERY OF 20-40% WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TEND
TO FOLLOW THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH PERIODS OF
AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS. SOME MORE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK,
LEADING TO SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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