135
FXUS65 KPSR 241153
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
453 AM MST TUE JUN 24 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR BELOW NORMAL STRETCH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS RETURNING BY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THROUGH THE WORKWEEK, WITH A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE (10 TO 25 PERCENT) OF A SHOWER OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZINESS (GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH) BEING
COMMON
DISCUSSION
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE WEST COAST AND
GREAT BASIN, PROVIDING A DECENT SWATH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS POINT IN JUNE. TEMPERATURES
YESTERDAY DID BUMP UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO THE DAY PRIOR AND
THAT WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORKWEEK. THIS GRADUAL WARMUP CAN BE CONTRIBUTED TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW, AND THE BUILDING OF HIGHER
HEIGHTS ALOFT, SIGNALING THE PRESENCE OF WARMER AIR THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. NBM HAS AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING CLOSER TO NEAR AND ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS BY THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING BACK CLOSE
TO 110 DEGREES BY FRIDAY.
SOME PARTS OF ARIZONA, MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS, WILL START TO SEE A
BIT OF SOME SEASONAL MONSOON ACTION AS BETTER MOISTURE PUSHES INTO
THE STATE. HOWEVER, MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE
AXIS OF DECENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR TO THE EAST TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS APPEARS TO BE OVER SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY, WHERE CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON SOME LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON RAINFALL ACTIVITY, MAINLY FROM THE GLOBE AREA AND
EASTWARD. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
REACHING OVER THIS AREA, BUT A SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE NEEDED.
WELL, THAT WILL COME IN THE FORM OF OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND
EVEN A SUBTLE GRAVITY WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN IN EARLY MORNING WV
IMAGERY. THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH TO
SPARK SOME SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. POPS OVER SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY ARE LOW, ONLY 10-25%, AS THERE IS A VERY WIDE GAP
BETWEEN WHAT CAMS ARE INDICATING AS SOME SHOW ACTIVITY, WHILE
OTHERS SHOW ALL RAINFALL REMAINING COMPLETELY OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA,
THE LATTER BEING THE MAJORITY.
WHAT LITTLE RAIN CHANCES THERE ARE OVER OUR AREA WILL BE WIPED
OUT BY WEDNESDAY AS THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST, CLOSER TO THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. AREAS OF FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND UP TOWARD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK, BUT MOST OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF WIDESPREAD MONSOONAL MOISTURE.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT, THE
RETURN OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOVERING CLOSE TO 110-115
DEGREES IS NOT TOO FAR OFF AS READINGS AT THESE LEVELS SHOULD BE
COMMON ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY THE LATE WEEKEND AND THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
FOR THOSE OF YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THAT BY NEXT WEEK, BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH FURTHER INTO
ARIZONA, ALLOWING FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS A BROADER
AREA OF THE STATE. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS THAT POINT TOWARD THE
PRESENCE OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH THAT COULD HELP INHIBIT THE ADVANCE
OF DECENT ENOUGH MOISTURE BY KEEPING MORE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, OR EVEN CUT THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS INITIAL PUSH OF
MOISTURE SHORT. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE TRENDS SIGNALING BETTER
MOISTURE BY EARLY JULY IS CERTAINLY A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION
TO SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF MORE EXPANSIVE RAINFALL ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1151Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY COMPONENT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TRENDS IN WINDS TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY INCLUDING
GOOD CONFIDENCE OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15KT THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE VEERING TO SW BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT. WINDS THEN TURN BACK
EASTERLY TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 6 KTS OR
LESS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE PREFERRED AT KBLH WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-20KT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDSARE EXPECTED AT
KIPL BY MID-MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT SPEEDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING WESTERLY THIS EVENING. WHILE LIKELY NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACTING SFC VISIBILITIES, LOFTED SMOKE/HAZE MAY
OCCASIONALLY AFFECT SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS FOR PARTS OF
GILA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS (OUTSIDE OF ANY
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM WINDS) WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS
WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZINESS, GUSTING TO 15-25
MPH. DAILY MINRH VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ONLY RUN
BETWEEN 5-15% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF
AS READINGS HOVER BETWEEN 20-40% FOR MOST AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WE GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS REACHING
NEAR 110 DEGREES BY SATURDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RW
AVIATION...BENEDICT/18
FIRE WEATHER...RW
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