188
FXUS65 KPSR 242149
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
249 PM MST TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR BELOW NORMAL STRETCH THROUGH
TOMORROW, WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS RETURNING BY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
- DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DAILY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZINESS (GUSTS 15 TO 25 MPH) BEING
COMMON
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK BY THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED
MAJOR HEATRISK BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
THE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO HOVER OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE. DUE TO THE LOW LINGERING ANOTHER
DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAS GRACED THE DESERT SW.
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER BELOW NORMAL DAY FOR THE LOWER DESERTS,
BUT WILL SEE HIGHS INCREASE BY 1-3 DEGREES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
NBM HAS AFTERNOON HIGHS PUSHING BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS BY THURSDAY, WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
BACK AT OR ABOVE THE 110 DEGREE MARK AS EARLY AS SATURDAY.
SOME PARTS OF ARIZONA, MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS, HAVE STARTED TO
SEE A BIT OF SOME SEASONAL MONSOON ACTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
BETTER MOISTURE HAS PUSHED INTO THE STATE. SOUTH-EASTERN GILA
COUNTY, POTENTIALLY UP TO GLOBE, IS THE ONLY AREA IN OUR FORECAST
REGION THAT MAY SEEN ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE STORMS, AS THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS PICKED UP ON SIGNALS OF REFLECTIVITY
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS, IF ANY AS POPS ARE BETWEEN
15-25%, WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND SHORT LIVED AS THEY EXPECT TO
PASS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. ONCE THE MOISTURE WITH THESE STORMS
PASS THROUGH SE GILA COUNTY, OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AS
THE AXIS OF DECENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO FAR TO THE
EAST.
WHAT LITTLE RAIN CHANCES THERE ARE OVER OUR AREA WILL BE WIPED
OUT BY TOMORROW AS THE AXIS OF GREATEST MOISTURE SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST, CLOSER TO THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. AREAS OF FAR
SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND UP TOWARD THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK, BUT MOST OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE BELOW NORMAL
PWAT VALUES. WITH DRY AIR AND INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT, THE
RETURN OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 110-115 DEGREES IS NOT FAR
FETCHED, AS READINGS AT THESE LEVELS SHOULD BE COMMON ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS BY THE LATE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
DURING THAT TIME WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK WILL BE COMMON WITH
POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED MAJOR ON MONDAY.
FOR THOSE OF YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS. CURRENT GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT BETTER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO PUSH FURTHER INTO
ARIZONA BY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD FACILITATE BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS A BROADER AREA OF THE STATE. HOWEVER, EXTENDED
MODELS STILL SHOWS SIGNALS OF ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH THAT COULD KEEP
MORE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE, INHIBITING THE ADVANCEMENT
OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION, OR EVEN CUT THE RESIDENCE TIME OF
THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE SHORT. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE TRENDS
SIGNALING BETTER MOISTURE BY EARLY JULY IS CERTAINLY A STEP IN THE
RIGHT DIRECTION TO SEE THE BEGINNINGS OF MORE EXPANSIVE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1735Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY COMPONENT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER IMPACT TODAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TRENDS IN WINDS TODAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY INCLUDING
GOOD CONFIDENCE OF A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY CROSS RUNWAY
WINDS GUSTING AROUND 15KT THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE VEERING TO SW BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT. WINDS THEN TURN BACK
EASTERLY TONIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH SPEEDS FALLING TO 6 KTS OR
LESS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE PREFERRED AT KBLH WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON GUSTS 15-20KT. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT
KIPL BY MID-MORNING WITH VERY LIGHT SPEEDS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING WESTERLY THIS EVENING. WHILE LIKELY NOT
DIRECTLY IMPACTING SFC VISIBILITIES, LOFTED SMOKE/HAZE MAY
OCCASIONALLY AFFECT SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS. WEAK AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT BOTH TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS FOR PARTS OF
GILA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS (OUTSIDE OF ANY
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM WINDS) WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS
WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZINESS, GUSTING TO 15-25
MPH. DAILY MINRH VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ONLY RUN
BETWEEN 5-15% AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF
AS READINGS HOVER BETWEEN 20-40% FOR MOST AREAS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT WE GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS REACHING
NEAR 110 DEGREES BY SATURDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RYAN/RW
AVIATION...YOUNG/BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...RW
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