223
FXUS65 KPSR 252152
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
252 PM MST WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL BY
THIS WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS ALL
AREAS BY SUNDAY
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL OVERALL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DAILY LIGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZES
- EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE PHOENIX METRO SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AS MAJOR HEATRISK DEVELOPS
DISCUSSION
A DECAYING TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN REGION IS
USHERING IN DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE MAIN
MOISTURE AXIS SETTING UP IN BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IS CENTERED FURTHER
EAST THAN YESTERDAY OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO, WHERE THE MORE
ROBUST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TODAY. HI-RES
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG
THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF ARIZONA, BUT NO LEGITIMATE THREAT OF
ANY CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN GILA COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, DUE TO THIS WEAKENING TROUGH
ACROSS WESTERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF
THIS WEEK, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS.
DAILY CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT NO REAL THREAT OF ASIDE FROM A STRAY
SHOWER HERE OR THERE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM
WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS WESTERN CONUS TO THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL DEGRADE THE ABOVE NORMAL PWAT'S IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
TO SHUT OFF CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT OF BUILDING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, WE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO RISE, WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES BY SUNDAY. MAJOR HEATRISK STARTS TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS WELL, WITH THE LARGEST COVERAGE ON MONDAY,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS. NBM
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THE DAILY HIGHS
SUNDAY-TUESDAY AND, ALONG WITH THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO OCCURRING, HAS RESULTED IN EXTREME HEAT WATCH ISSUANCE
FOR THE PHOENIX METRO FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE
TO THE NORTH, CENTERING ITSELF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA BY NEXT
TUESDAY. ONCE THIS SHIFT OCCURS, IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO MUCH OF
ARIZONA. IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT WITH PUSHING THE HIGH CENTER OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA, IT WOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ACROSS ARIZONA NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY OUR FIRST DECENT
CHANCES OF MONSOON CONVECTION BY AROUND THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. SOME OF THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON A WEAK TROUGH THAT IS SHOWN
SETTING UP JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. FOR NOW, THERE REMAINS A GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENTS OF THE HIGH CENTER AND THE
TROUGH, ALONG WITH HOW MUCH AND WHEN THE MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO
OUR REGION. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
EASTERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION AS EARLY AS MONDAY OR
TUESDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION INTO THE LOWER DESERTS
AS EARLY AS NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1730Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL
TRENDS. THE FAMILIAR AFTERNOON GUSTS WILL BE MOSTLY DORMANT TODAY,
ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF
SPEEDS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE FEW-
SCT CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN IN THE DISTANCE OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB
10 KTS. WHILE LIKELY NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING SFC VISIBILITIES,
LOFTED SMOKE/HAZE MAY OCCASIONALLY AFFECT SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES
DURING THE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT KIPL. OTHER
THAN THE LOFTED SMOKE/HAZE CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM DAY-TO-
DAY, BUT READINGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. MINRH VALUES WILL ONLY RANGE BETWEEN 5-15% AND
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL NOT OFFER MUCH RELIEF AS VALUES HOVER
BETWEEN 20-40%. WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS, GUSTING MAINLY BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. BY
THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY PEAKING ABOVE 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS BY
SUNDAY. EVENTUALLY, THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AROUND NEXT TUESDAY.
THIS MAY INITIALLY RESULT A DAY OR TWO OF DRY LIGHTNING CONCERNS
BEFORE MOISTURE AND RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASES LATER NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ537-540-542>544-546-548-550-551.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...YOUNG
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN/RW
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG/KUHLMAN
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