514
FXUS65 KPSR 262106
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
206 PM MST THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY HEAT UP INTO THE WEEKEND REACHING
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS
ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY
- EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PHOENIX METRO SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING 110 DEGREES
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, BUT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEXT WEEK IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE DEPICTS A VERY DRY AIRMASS OVERHEAD,
WITH THE FAVORED AREA OF CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUES THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, BUT AS THIS FEATURE
DISSIPATES OVER THE COMING DAYS, THE STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THAT BROUGHT OPPRESSIVE HEAT TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MEANDER BACK WESTWARD GOING INTO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT ENOUGH TO REASONABLY
HAVE EXTREME HEAT PRODUCTS OUT FOR AT LEAST THE PHOENIX METRO
SUNDAY-TUESDAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 110-115 RANGE AND LOWS WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S (PROBS OF KPHX HITTING A LOW OF 90 IS
AROUND 40-60%). THUS, AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT, WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDED ON MONDAY WHEN
MAJOR HEATRISK IS THE MOST EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES MUCH MORE MUDDLED STARTING
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WEST
COAST. THIS FEATURE WILL INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH OVERHEAD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK TO RETREAT NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS RETREAT SHOULD PRESENT THE FIRST INDICATION OF LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURNS OF THE SEASON, A TYPICAL FEATURE OF THE MONSOON. HOWEVER,
LARGE DISCREPANCIES ARE APPARENT AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES ON HOW
EARLY AND HOW QUICK THIS MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ARIZONA. THE
GEFS REMAINS MUCH QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF AS THE LATEST MEANS
DEPICT THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS (GEFS), WHICH
WOULD CAUSE THE MOISTURE LEVELS TO INCREASE FASTER THAN THE HIGH
CENTER POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH (ECMWF). THUS, GEFS MEMBERS SHOW
AN EARLIER INCREASE TO ABOVE NORMAL PWAT'S AS EARLY AS MONDAY
EVENING, WITH THE INCREASING PWAT SIGNAL FOR THE ECMWF DELAYED
MORE INTO THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME.
THUS, THE TIMING OF MOISTURE INCREASES, DICTATED BY THE STRENGTH
OF THIS TROUGHING AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONING, WILL DETERMINE
HOW SOON THE REGION COULD CONCEIVABLY SEE CONVECTION POTENTIAL
INCREASE. THE CURRENT THINKING IS CONVECTION POTENTIAL WILL FIRST
INCREASE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY, WITH GRADUAL INCREASING CHANCES INTO THE LOWER
DESERTS GOING INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. PRIOR TO HIGHER POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE LOWER DESERTS, THIS TRANSITION FROM DRY TO
MORE MOIST CONDITIONS MAY BE PRECEDED BY A COUPLE OF DAYS OF
GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST IMPACTS DUE TO OUTFLOWS STEMMING FROM
PERIPHERY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE
ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT A DAY OR TWO OF A DRY LIGHTNING THREAT AHEAD
OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BY LATE NEXT WEEK, WE MAY EVEN BE ABLE TO SEE SOME DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE SEEP INTO PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, BUT THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON WHAT HAPPENS WITH A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE
SOUTH OF BAJA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IF WE DO END UP
SEEING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE AT SOME POINT LATE NEXT WEEK, RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS TO FALL ON AROUND NEXT FRIDAY. THERE ARE STILL A LOT
OF WHAT-IFS, BUT WE CAN AT LEAST POINT TOWARD THE 6-10 DAY CPC
OUTLOOK WHICH SHOWS A 70-80% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
LATE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON OUR
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1725Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
ANOTHER SIMILAR PATTERN TODAY AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL SHIFTS. SEASONAL AFTERNOON SPORADIC GUSTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONLY
CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE REGION WILL BE A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS TO
THE FAR EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
BREEZINESS AT KBLH IN THE AFTERNOON. WHILE NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING
SFC VISIBILITIES, LOFTED SMOKE/HAZE MAY OCCASIONALLY AFFECT
SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AT
KIPL.
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND LEADING TO A STRONG WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY
BEFORE PEAKING EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN HUMIDITY
TRENDS AS MINRH VALUES CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 5-15% EACH DAY
AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES STAY BETWEEN 20-35%. WINDS WILL FOLLOW
FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZINESS, GUSTING
MAINLY BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. EVENTUALLY, THE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AROUND NEXT
TUESDAY. THIS MAY INITIALLY RESULT A DAY OR TWO OF DRY LIGHTNING
CONCERNS BEFORE MOISTURE AND RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASES LATER NEXT
WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ537-540-542>544-546-548-550-551.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ534-538-539-552>555-559.
CA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...YOUNG
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN/RW
FIRE WEATHER...YOUNG/KUHLMAN
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