696
FXUS65 KPSR 051140
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
440 AM MST SAT JUL 5 2025
UPDATE...UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOWER ELEVATION HIGHS HOVERING AROUND 110 DEGREES BY SUNDAY,
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
- FURTHER WARMING, AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, ARE EXPECTED
INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS PUSHING CLOSE TO 115 DEGREES FOR SOME
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS.
- EXTREME HEAT WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE PHOENIX METRO,
ALONG WITH SURROUNDING AREAS OF MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES,
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MORNING ATMOSPHERIC ANALYSIS REVEALS SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING NOW
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO, WHILE
A FEW DISTURBANCES PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER REGIME FOR OUR REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO BUILD AND MIGRATE
FURTHER WEST IN ITS CURRENT STAGE, WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT BETWEEN
592-594DM, DAY-TO-DAY TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER, BUT HOVER RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL LEVELS.
HIGHS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE BETWEEN 101-109 DEGREES.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES BRING A QUICK DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD INHIBIT
THE PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY, AND PERHAPS EVEN
LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT INTO SUNDAY. TYPICALLY, WHEN HEIGHTS REMAIN
STEADY OR DROP SLIGHTLY, THIS TRANSLATES TO A SIMILAR TREND IN
DAY-TO- DAY TEMPS, BUT IN THIS CASE, AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR SUNDAY
ARE FORECASTED TO RISE TO BETWEEN 106-111 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS. THE REASON FOR THIS CAN BE FOUND IN THE TRENDS OF OUR
REGIONAL 850MB TEMPERATURES, AS THEY ARE FORECASTED TO INCREASE
FROM TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
MOISTURE CONTENT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE LACKING, AND IT DOES NOT
APPEAR A BETTER INFLUX CAN EXPECTED AS WE REMAIN UNDER UNFAVORABLE
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LARGELY KEEP ANY MONSOONAL RELATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT DOWN IN
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER,
HI- RES GUIDANCE DOES HINT AS SOME SHORT-LIVED ACTIVITY ALONG THE
MARICOPA, PIMA COUNTY BORDER, BUT CHANCES ARE SLIGHT AT BEST (10-
30%).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOOKING BEYOND TOWARD THE UPCOMING WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EVENTUALLY PARK ITSELF OVER ARIZONA AND
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT PROJECTED TO CLIMB TO 597-
599DM, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR UPWARD CLIMB, WITH MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS RANGING BETWEEN 108-116 DEGREES THROUGH MOST,
IF NOT ALL OF THE WORK WEEK. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE HOTTEST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE PEAKS IN STRENGTH AND SITS VIRTUALLY
RIGHT ON TOP OF OUR CWA. MAXT VALUES OF 110-116 WILL BE COMMON FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, TRANSLATING TO AREAS OF MAJOR HEATRISK. IN
TURN, AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PHOENIX
METRO, AND THE SURROUNDING AREAS OF MARICOPA AND NORTHERN PINAL
COUNTIES FOR THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONAL EXTREME
HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOR
AREAS IN SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. IT
WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISING, DEPENDING ON SUBTLE FORECAST SHIFTS,
IF PRODUCTS FOR SOME AREAS ARE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE HIGH WILL
DELAY THAT DECISION AT LEAST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
FOR THE FANS OF MONSOON RAINFALL, YOU MAY WANT TO LOOK AWAY. DUE TO
THE EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND THE CONTINUATION OF UNFAVORABLE
FLOW, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH VERY FEW (IF
ANY) ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING MEASURABLE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1130Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD DECKS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION AT KIWA WHERE EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE WEST BY THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KTS WITH
SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER TEENS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, SHIFTING
OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 12 KTS, ALTHOUGH SOME
OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT
KBLH AND THIS EVENING AT KIPL.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVERHEAD. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS WILL TRANSLATE TO MINRHS BETWEEN 15-25%, BUT FURTHER
WEST, VALUES WILL RANGE CLOSER TO 10-15%. THOSE LOWER VALUES
BECOME MORE COMMON SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS DRIER AIR SPREADS
FURTHER EAST. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL ONLY OFFER MARGINAL
RELIEF, AS MAXRHS HOVER BETWEEN 20-45% OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS, WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON
BREEZINESS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS
OF THE FAR EASTERN DISTRICTS, BUT CWR ARE <10%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ534-537>540-542>544-546-548-550-551-553>555-559.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...RW
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