626
FXUS65 KPSR 251738
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1038 AM MST FRI JUL 25 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY INHIBIT ANY RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MONSOONAL ACTIVITY INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THE CLOSED LOW
REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US, WITH THE CENTER MUCH FURTHER EAST
THAN WE WOULD TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR. VERY DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE DESERT SW, WITH PWATS WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND IN THE 0.2-0.5" RANGE. THIS VERY DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY.
ON SATURDAY THE CLOSED LOW WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND EVENTUALLY
GET WRAPPED UP INTO A TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING DOWN THE WESTERN
CANADIAN COAST. AS THIS HAPPENS IT WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO PUSH FURTHER INTO THE DESERT SW, INCREASING HEIGHTS
ALOFT, AND ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND/BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK, HIGHS OF 103-109 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THE
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL HELP TO KEEP MORNING LOWS ON THE COOLER SIDE
AND BELOW NORMAL. LOWER DESERT MORNING LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 70S ASIDE FROM CENTRAL PHOENIX WHERE MORNING LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
EXPANSION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MUCH OF
CONUS, WITH H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 590-595DM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWAT VALUES GOING FROM
AROUND 0.5" ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 0.7-0.9" ON MONDAY. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH
ENSEMBLES SHOWING PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3-1.5" ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TO MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ, INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO. DESPITE THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN ONLY IN THE 10-35%
FOR TUESDAY-FRIDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. OVERALL, THE
PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THESE INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECT THE USUAL HAZARDS OF GUSTY WINDS, FROM
BOTH THE THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THEY
PRODUCE, LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND AREAS OF LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 104-111 DEGREES. WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES, TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECASTED TO RETURN TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ (100-107 DEGREES)
AND REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SE CA AND SW AZ (103-110
DEGREES) FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1740Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO EXHIBIT THE FAMILIAR DIURNAL TENDENCIES, WITH SOME SOUTHERLY
VARIABILITY OBSERVED LATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING DECIDEDLY
SW/W BY 19-21Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AOB 10 KTS, ALTHOUGH SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING GUSTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT KIPL WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST
WHILE AT KBLH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS. KIPL COULD POTENTIALLY SEE TEMPORARY
GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND/BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. MINRHS WILL BE IN THE 5-10% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
MONDAY, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HAVE MINRHS INCREASE TO
15-25% IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN DISTRICT, WHEREAS
ELSEWHERE MINRHS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15%. MINRHS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE TO 15-30% ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEXT WEEK THERE WILL ALSO
BE INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. WITH CHANCES RELEGATED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND SPREADING TO THE LOWER DESERTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THEIR
TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...WHITTOCK/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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