582
FXUS65 KPSR 252255
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
355 PM MST FRI JUL 25 2025
UPDATE...UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY INHIBIT ANY RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MONSOONAL ACTIVITY INCREASES AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER AS A TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO
KEEP US UNSEASONABLY DRY, KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH
OF ARIZONA WITH NO ONGOING MONSOONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE STATE. THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EVIDENT IN THIS
MORNING'S 12Z PHX SOUNDING WITH A RECORDED PWAT OF 0.44", WHILE
DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 20-30 DEGREES.
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO RISING HEIGHTS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WEAKENS AND EXITS THE
REGION, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
EXPANDS/RETROGRADES WESTWARD. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOWS 500 MB HEIGHTS
RISING TO AROUND 590-593 DM BY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL
SEE CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL READINGS BEFORE WARMING UP NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS WARM UP
TO AROUND 106-110 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
EXPANSION AND STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MUCH OF
CONUS, WITH H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 590-595DM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SHOW PWAT VALUES GOING FROM
AROUND 0.5" ON SUNDAY TO AROUND 0.7-0.9" ON MONDAY. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF PHOENIX ON MONDAY. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH
ENSEMBLES SHOWING PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3-1.5" ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AND ALLOW FOR SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES TO MOVE BACK INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ, INCLUDING THE PHOENIX METRO. DESPITE THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN ONLY IN THE 10-35%
FOR TUESDAY-FRIDAY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
CURRENTLY LOOKING LIKE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. OVERALL, THE
PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR INCREASED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH THESE INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXPECT THE USUAL HAZARDS OF GUSTY WINDS, FROM
BOTH THE THUNDERSTORMS THEMSELVES AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THEY
PRODUCE, LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND AREAS OF LOCALIZED
BLOWING DUST.
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS OF 104-111 DEGREES. WITH THE INCREASED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES, TEMPERATURES ARE THEN FORECASTED TO RETURN TO
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ (100-107 DEGREES)
AND REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN SE CA AND SW AZ (103-110
DEGREES) FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2255Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS ALONG WITH SOME OCCASIONAL
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING GUSTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT KIPL WILL STAY OUT OF THE WEST
WHILE AT KBLH WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. KIPL COULD POTENTIALLY SEE TEMPORARY GUSTS NEAR
30 KTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM FROM NEAR NORMAL TODAY TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND/BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. MINRHS WILL BE IN THE 5-10% RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON
MONDAY, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL HAVE MINRHS INCREASE TO
15-25% IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN DISTRICT, WHEREAS
ELSEWHERE MINRHS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15%. MINRHS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE TO 15-30% ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEXT WEEK THERE WILL ALSO
BE INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. WITH CHANCES RELEGATED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY AND SPREADING TO THE LOWER DESERTS
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL TEND TO FOLLOW THEIR
TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH THE USUAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...LOJERO/WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
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