862
FXUS65 KPSR 290959
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
259 AM MST TUE JUL 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS AROUND 110
DEGREES WILL RESULT IN A DAILY MODERATE HEATRISK.
- LIMITED MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF EASTERN
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LEADING TO
AN EVEN LESS OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK ON RAIN CHANCES. THE MAIN REASON
IS THE INVERTED TROUGH THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA HAS MOSTLY WASHED OUT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HELP BRING AS
MUCH MOISTURE AS ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE MOSTLY
SHOWS THE STALLED OUT LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINING TO OUR
NORTHWEST WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH NOW HAVING EVEN HIGHER
INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION. THE REMNANTS OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AND
ITS MOISTURE ARE STILL POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO, BUT NOW IT SEEMS MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE WILL NEVER
MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA.
FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, LIMITED MOISTURE WITH PWATS OF AROUND 1"
WILL HELP TO BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA TO AS FAR NORTH AS EASTERN GILA COUNTY.
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND FIVE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MOISTURE IS STILL LIKELY TO IMPROVE SOME LATER THIS WEEK AND
SPREAD WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS, BUT TO A LESSER DEGREE
THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. THE LATEST GEFS ONLY SHOWS PWATS
RISING TO 1.0-1.1" INTO THE LOWER DESERTS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNING, WHEREAS THE EPS SHOWS 1.2-1.3". LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS
ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED MUCH OF THE TIME, MAINLY STAYING
BETWEEN 6-8 G/KG BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF 8-10 G/KG
CENTERED ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BESIDES THE LIMITED MOISTURE, WE ARE
ALSO LIKELY TO FALL WITHIN A MORE SUBSIDENT RIGHT EXIT REGION OF
AN UPPER LEVEL JET. POPS HAVE BEEN SCALED BACK A GOOD AMOUNT WITH
CHANCES MAINLY STILL OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGHER TERRAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 15-25% CHANCES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS THURSDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THE LATEST LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL MOISTURE, THESE POPS ARE LIKELY
TOO OPTIMISTIC.
LINGERING MOISTURE INTO FRIDAY MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, BUT BY THIS TIME
DRIER AIR WILL ALREADY BE USHERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BE NEARLY
OVERHEAD. THE STRONGER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH CENTER WILL LIKELY
COUNTERACT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER DESERTS LEAVING
ONLY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE RAPID DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH PWATS DROPPING TO WELL BELOW 1" AREAWIDE BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER THAN A VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO OVER EASTERN ARIZONA ON SATURDAY, RAIN
CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO COME TO AN END FOR A COUPLE DAYS. GUIDANCE
DOES HINT AT MAYBE A RETURN OF SOME LIMITED CONVECTION AT SOME
POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ONLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
HIGHS AROUND 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS ARE LIKELY MOST
DAYS. LUCKILY, GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST
SHOULD SHIFT CLOSER TO OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND TO SUPPRESS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IS DEFINITELY THE MOST FAVORED SOLUTION,
BUT THERE REMAINS AROUND 10-20% OF THE MEMBERS SHOWING THE RIDGE
HAVING MORE INFLUENCE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, WE MAY END UP SEEING
HIGHS CLOSER TO 115 DEGREES. BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD (LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK), ENSEMBLES ARE POINTING AT THE RIDGE REBUILDING
WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN EARLY AUGUST EXTREME HEAT
EVENT.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0500Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ISSUES WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. EAST WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SETTLE OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH DISTANT OUTFLOWS
SLOWLY PROGRESSING INTO THE AIRSPACE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
RELEGATED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WITH OUTFLOWS TRYING TO PUSH WESTWARD. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
REGARDING TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
DECAYING OUTFLOWS MAY INFLUENCE AND HASTEN THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
EASTERLY SHIFT, OR COULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE AERODROMES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. TRENDS IN WINDS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PAST 24 HOURS
INCORPORATING LIMITED GUSTINESS AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF NEARLY CALM
CONDITIONS DURING LATE NIGHT/MORNING. OVERALL, DIRECTIONS WILL
GENERALLY VARY FROM SE TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
LIMITED MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DAILY CHANCES OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN, BUT CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL MOSTLY BE
10% OR LESS. BY THURSDAY, THE LIMITED CHANCES MAY EXTEND INTO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS. THE LACK OF GOOD MOISTURE
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST MINOR RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING. AFTERNOON
MINRHS FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5-15% TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH 15-20% IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW DIURNAL
TENDENCIES WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY RUN 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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