951
FXUS65 KPSR 301754
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1054 AM MST WED JUL 30 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS BETWEEN 108
AND 113 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK
INTO NEXT WEEK AND LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK IN THE PHOENIX AREA
MAINLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- LIMITED MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES OF EASTERN
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS ON THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOWER POTENTIAL OF MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE SEEPING WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF ARIZONA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS NEW
MEXICO INTO CHIHUAHUA MEXICO IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH MORE
WESTWARD PROGRESS, AT MOST REACHING FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA LATER
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY QUITE
LOW OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH PWATS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS
RANGING FROM 0.5-0.8" TO AS HIGH AS 1.0-1.2" ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED IMPROVE SOME FOR THURSDAY WITH
PWATS OF 1.0-1.2" SPREADING WESTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS, BUT THIS WILL NOT LIKELY BE ENOUGH
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVELS
WILL CONTINUE TO ACT TO SUPPRESS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL,
ALLOWING AT MOST A 10% CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM INTO
THE PHOENIX AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LOWER DESERTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE HOT TEMPERATURES WITH MODELS TRENDING HOTTER WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN DUE TO THE SHIFT TOWARD LESS MOISTURE. H5
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 593-596DM THROUGH THURSDAY
PROVIDING DAILY HIGHS BETWEEN 107-111 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS, OR BETWEEN 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK WILL AFFECT ALL BUT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS DURING THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK IS GROWING FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA, INCLUDING THE
PHOENIX METRO. THE LATEST MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO TREND AWAY FROM
ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LOWER DESERTS ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE RIDGE
CENTER IS NOW MORE LIKELY TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH H5
HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 597-598DM. THE LATEST NBM FORECAST TEMPERATURES
NOW SHOW HIGHS BETWEEN 110-113 DEGREES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE PHOENIX METRO
BETWEEN 85-90 DEGREES. THIS SHIFT HAS RESULTED IN A GROWING AREA
OF MAJOR HEATRISK WITH A COVERAGE OF 10-20% ACROSS THE PHOENIX
METRO. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY EXTREME HEAT WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR
NOW, BUT IF GUIDANCE TRENDS ANY HOTTER HEAT PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE NEEDED.
WE ARE EXPECTING SOME LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD
OF ARIZONA ON FRIDAY, BUT WITH THE HIGH CENTER SETTING UP
DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA ANY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MORE ORGANIZED WESTERLY
DRY FLOW WILL ALSO SET UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH PWATS QUICKLY
DROPPING TO AROUND 0.75" ON SATURDAY, MOSTLY ENDING ANY RAIN
CHANCES EVEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THIS DRY WESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO AT LEAST PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT BY MONDAY MODELS
BEGIN TO SHIFT THE HIGH CENTER MORE OVER NEW MEXICO. IF THIS SHIFT
OCCURS, IT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO BEGIN SEEPING BACK
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS EARLY AS MONDAY. LIMITED 10%
POPS HAVE ADDED ACROSS THE PHOENIX METRO FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH CHANCES CLOSER TO 20% OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO TAKE A SLIGHT DIP OF A COUPLE OF
DEGREES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 107-111
DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. LOOKING OUT TOWARD THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE IS STILL POINTING AT A RESTRENGTHENING
OF THE RIDGE AND THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF EXTREME HEAT.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1753Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED W'RLY EARLY AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME LIGHT VARIABILITY STILL EXPECTED THROUGH NOON.
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
CUMULUS AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING WELL TO THE EAST. THERE IS
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AN OUTFLOW TO MOVE INTO THE PHOENIX AREA LATE
THIS EVENING, BUT IF ONE DOES IT WILL MOSTLY JUST SERVE AS AN
E'RLY WIND SHIFT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, BUT
WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO OR IN THE PHOENIX
AREA.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR SOUTHEASTERLY
DURING THE DAY AT KIPL, WITH WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING, AND S-SW
AT KBLH. PERIODS OF LIGHT VARIABILITY CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNINGS. A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
LIMITED MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE FOR DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAINS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10% RESULTING IN AT LEAST MINOR RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING. AFTERNOON
MINRHS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15% ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS TO 15-20% IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OUTSIDE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW DIURNAL
TENDENCIES WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS MOSTLY BETWEEN
108-112 DEGREES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN TAKE OVER ACROSS THE
REGION BY THE WEEKEND WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT FURTHER. THIS
WILL PUSH HUMIDITIES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND END ANY RAIN
CHANCES.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT/SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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