356
FXUS65 KPSR 261831
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1131 AM MST TUE AUG 26 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL STILL A POSSIBILITY
TODAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY END RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AFTER YESTERDAY'S CONSIDERABLE MONSOON ACTIVITY, TODAY IS SHAPING
UP TO BE MUCH QUIETER. MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH PWATS RANGING FROM NEAR 2" ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TO
1.5-1.8" ACROSS THE REST OF THE LOWER DESERTS. HOWEVER,
YESTERDAY'S WIDESPREAD STORMS HAVE EFFECTIVELY OVERTURNED THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE 70S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE. DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ALSO STARTING TO WORK ITS WAY IN
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR MAY HELP TO ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE
TODAY, BUT GIVEN THE COOL START TO THE DAY WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO
GO TO REALLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE
CIN THAT HAS DEVELOPED.
THE CURRENT THINKING IS WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME MORNING ISOLATED
ELEVATED SHOWER ACTIVITY, BUT ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LIKELY
TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. HI-RES CAMS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
TODAY SHOULD ONLY SEE FAIRLY SPARSE CONVECTION WITH THE BEST
CHANCES LIKELY FOCUSED IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND OVER EASTERN
ARIZONA. THE ARW IS SHOWING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY AN
OUTLIER. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY WILL STILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME VERY LOCALIZED
FLOODING DUE TO THE REMAINING DECENT MOISTURE, BUT WITH LESS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT AND LOWER DCAPES THE THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
MUCH LESS THAN YESTERDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT TODAY, BUT GIVEN THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS IT MAY FEEL MORE MUGGY THAN USUAL. HIGHS ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERTS SHOULD ONLY REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY.
THE DRYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THIS SHOULD LOWER PWATS MORE INTO
A 1.2-1.4" RANGE WHILE MIXING RATIOS DROP TO BETWEEN 7-9 G/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW
FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO
WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER TODAY'S READINGS WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
RIGHT AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST LOWER DESERT LOCALES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL REMNANTS OF TC JULIETTE ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CLIP PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DUE TO THE TC MAKING IT A BIT FARTHER
TO THE NORTH, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE
INTO MOSTLY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
TEMPORARY BOOST IN MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXPECTED MOISTURE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED
AND SHOULD NOT POSE A REAL THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL, BUT POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE RAIN
CHANCES. ELSEWHERE ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE QUIET CONDITIONS,
BUT MUCH OF ARIZONA MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS.
BY FRIDAY AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY IMPOSE MORE INFLUENCE
ACROSS OUR REGION LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER, FORECAST
H5 HEIGHTS ARE ONLY SHOWN TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS DURING THIS TIME WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING MUCH ABOVE NORMALS. CURRENT NBM FORECAST HIGHS SHOW
READINGS BETWEEN 102-105 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND MOSTLY BETWEEN
104-108 DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THESE READINGS WOULD PUT THE BULK
OF THE AREA BACK INTO A MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING OUT EVEN FURTHER, GUIDANCE FAVORS OUR FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS WERE
TO HAPPEN, WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF SOME MONSOON MOISTURE
AND EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1831Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
A REPEAT OF YESTDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTERNOON
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH EAST AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX, WITH
A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW IMPACTS. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW
10 KT AND LIGHT VARIABILITY DURING THE DIRECTIONAL TRANSITIONS.
FEW TO SCT CUMULUS BASED AROUND 8K FT AGL WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
OR A STORM DEVELOPING IN THE PHOENIX AREA TONIGHT AROUND 07-11Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY REFLECTION IN THE TAF.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL VARY FROM SE'RLY - W'RLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT BOTH TERMINALS. SPEEDS OVERALL WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY TSRA IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS TODAY, AND
THUS THERE IS NO REFLECTION IN THE TAFS. INDICATIONS ARE STORMS
WILL STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF KIPL AND DISSIPATE ONCE TRYING TO MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ANY CELLS IN THE REGION OF KBLH WILL STAY
NEAR TERRAIN FEATURES TO THE NORTHWEST. FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
COOLER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK
WITH WETTING RAIN CHANCES MOSTLY BETWEEN 10-20% AREAWIDE. TODAY
SHOULD BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE ELEVATED HUMIDITIES WILL
LEAD TO MINRHS BETWEEN 30-40% TODAY AND 20-30% FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL
AND MINRHS DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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