890
FXUS65 KPSR 262033
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
133 PM MST TUE AUG 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH LOWER DESERT HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY END RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AFTER THE VERY ACTIVE DAY YESTERDAY MUCH LESS COVERAGE TODAY.
MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM NEAR 2" ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TO 1.5-1.8" ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOWER DESERTS. HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT THIS TREND OF LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWER DCAPE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS OF A SEVERE
WIND THREAT. THE DRYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THIS SHOULD LOWER PWATS
MORE INTO A 1.2-1.4" RANGE WHILE MIXING RATIOS DROP TO BETWEEN 7-9
G/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
ALLOW FOR SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, CLIMBING JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL REMNANTS OF TC JULIETTE ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CLIP PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DUE TO THE TC MAKING IT A BIT FARTHER
TO THE NORTH, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE
INTO MOSTLY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
TEMPORARY BOOST IN MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE EXPECTED MOISTURE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED
AND SHOULD NOT POSE A REAL THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL, BUT POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE RAIN
CHANCES. ELSEWHERE ON THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE QUIET CONDITIONS,
BUT MUCH OF ARIZONA MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUDINESS.
BY FRIDAY AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY IMPOSE MORE INFLUENCE
ACROSS OUR REGION LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER, FORECAST
H5 HEIGHTS ARE ONLY SHOWN TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS DURING THIS TIME WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING MUCH ABOVE NORMALS. CURRENT NBM FORECAST HIGHS SHOW
READINGS BETWEEN 102-105 DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND MOSTLY BETWEEN
104-108 DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THESE READINGS WOULD PUT THE BULK
OF THE AREA BACK INTO A MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING OUT EVEN FURTHER, GUIDANCE FAVORS OUR FLOW TURNING MORE
SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY AS EARLY AS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS WERE
TO HAPPEN, WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL RETURN OF SOME MONSOON MOISTURE
AND EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1831Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
A REPEAT OF YESTDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTERNOON
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH EAST AND SOUTH OF PHOENIX, WITH
A VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW IMPACTS. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THEIR TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS MAINLY BELOW
10 KT AND LIGHT VARIABILITY DURING THE DIRECTIONAL TRANSITIONS.
FEW TO SCT CUMULUS BASED AROUND 8K FT AGL WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10%) OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
OR A STORM DEVELOPING IN THE PHOENIX AREA TONIGHT AROUND 07-11Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY REFLECTION IN THE TAF.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL VARY FROM SE'RLY - W'RLY THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT BOTH TERMINALS. SPEEDS OVERALL WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 10 KT. THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY TSRA IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON STORM DEVELOPMENT AT THE TERMINALS TODAY, AND
THUS THERE IS NO REFLECTION IN THE TAFS. INDICATIONS ARE STORMS
WILL STAY WEST AND SOUTH OF KIPL AND DISSIPATE ONCE TRYING TO MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND ANY CELLS IN THE REGION OF KBLH WILL STAY
NEAR TERRAIN FEATURES TO THE NORTHWEST. FEW TO SCT MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND MORE ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED, BUT AREAS IMPACTED WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES WARM TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL AND MINRHS DROP
BACK INTO THE TEENS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN/FRIEDERS
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...FRIEDERS
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