206
FXUS65 KPSR 270512
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1010 PM MST TUE AUG 26 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWER
DESERT HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- DRYING CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY END RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AFTER THE VERY ACTIVE DAY YESTERDAY MUCH LESS COVERAGE TODAY.
MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PWATS RANGING
FROM NEAR 2" ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA TO 1.5-1.8" ACROSS THE REST
OF THE LOWER DESERTS. HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT THIS TREND OF LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES HOWEVER ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWER DCAPE SHOULD RESULT IN LESS OF A SEVERE WIND
THREAT. THE DRYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THIS SHOULD LOWER PWATS MORE
INTO A 1.2-1.4" RANGE WHILE MIXING RATIOS DROP TO BETWEEN 7-9 G/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR
SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, CLIMBING
JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE SLIGHTLY FOR THURSDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL REMNANTS OF TC JULIETTE ARE NOW EXPECTED TO CLIP PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. DUE TO THE TC MAKING IT A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH, THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE INTO
MOSTLY SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS
TEMPORARY BOOST IN MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE EXPECTED MOISTURE WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND SHOULD
NOT POSE A REAL THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE RAIN CHANCES. ELSEWHERE ON
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE QUIET CONDITIONS, BUT MUCH OF ARIZONA MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS.
BY FRIDAY AND GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY IMPOSE MORE INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR
REGION LEADING TO A WARMING TREND. HOWEVER, FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS ARE
ONLY SHOWN TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS DURING THIS
TIME WHICH SHOULD KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE
NORMALS. CURRENT NBM FORECAST HIGHS SHOW READINGS BETWEEN 102-105
DEGREES BY FRIDAY AND MOSTLY BETWEEN 104-108 DEGREES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THESE READINGS WOULD PUT THE BULK OF THE AREA BACK INTO A
MODERATE HEATRISK FOR THE WEEKEND. LOOKING OUT EVEN FURTHER,
GUIDANCE FAVORS OUR FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY AS EARLY
AS MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN, WE SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL RETURN OF SOME MONSOON MOISTURE AND EVENTUALLY SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0510Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
TSRA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE GREATEST WEATHER
ISSUE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30KT AND POTENTIALLY
BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW
WITH RESPECT TO WIND TRENDS EARLY IN THE FORECAST, BUT SHOULD TURN
EASTERLY AFTER TSRA CLEARS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE,
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE
THE PHOENIX AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY STAYING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR WEATHER ISSUES SHOULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING UNDER OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. WIND
DIRECTIONS SHOULD OSCILLATE BETWEEN DAYTIME SE AND EVENING/OVERNIGHT
SW WITH LIMITED OVERALL GUSTINESS.
FIRE WEATHER
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND MORE ELEVATED HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED,
BUT AREAS IMPACTED WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL AND MINRHS DROP BACK INTO THE
TEENS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN/FRIEDERS
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...FRIEDERS
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