031
FXUS65 KPSR 100448
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
948 PM MST TUE SEP 9 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THROUGH MID
WEEK, RESULTING IN LOCALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK FOR THE LOWER
DESERTS, BEFORE COOLING SLIGHTLY LATE WEEK.
- OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH
ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FALLING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS, INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PUSHES ONSHORE ALONG
SOUTHERN OREGON/NORCAL. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL INDUCE
BREEZY CONDITIONS, REMINISCENT OF A MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER
SYSTEM. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
BY THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING AREAWIDE ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS HAVE
ERODED FROM NEAR 1.5" THIS TIME YESTERDAY (WITH MOST MOISTURE
CONFINED BELOW 600 MB) TO BELOW 1.1" ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS, LEADING TO NEAR ZERO RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOME RETURN OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF AZ IS STILL ADVERTISED BY
ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY, DRAWING MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 102-106F FOR THE
TYPICALLY HOTTER LOWER DESERT COMMUNITIES OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THIS
AFTERNOON, AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER OUT WEST COMPARED TO THE
VALUES OBSERVED YESTERDAY. AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS DECREASE FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL
DECREASE MOST NOTABLY OVER SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ, LIKELY
FALLING BELOW THE CENTURY MARK FOR MOST AREAS TOMORROW. MEANWHILE,
LATEST NBM SHOWS A NEAR PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR PHOENIX METRO
AREA HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
GUIDANCE THEN SHOWS THE PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTING MORE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST THURSDAY IN FRIDAY WITH THE LOW CENTER EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO IDAHO AND A WEAK TROUGH AXIS MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY. GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BRING PERIODS OF BREEZINESS ALONG WITH SOME SLIGHT COOLING ACROSS
THE REGION. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
ARIZONA MAY SEE SOME LOW END RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE MUCH IF ANY
RAINFALL GIVEN THE OVERALL LOW MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND WEAK
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. ONCE THE
TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH LATER ON FRIDAY, MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 30S BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF SLIGHTLY
WITH MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S STARTING THURSDAY AND LIKELY STAYING THERE THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL OFF A GOOD AMOUNT
WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER DESERTS BY
FRIDAY MORNING AND WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A SECOND PACIFIC TROUGH IS LIKELY TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST BY SUNDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING INLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AND
MAINTAIN AN OVERALL DRY WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0445Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL EXHIBIT THE FAMILIAR DIURNAL
TENDENCIES, WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS BEFORE THE WESTERLY
SHIFT AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, OTHERWISE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH FEW MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
WINDS AT KIPL WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE WEST WHILE WINDS AT KBLH
WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. GUSTS UPWARDS OF
20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KBLH THIS AFTERNOON AND IN THE MID 20
KTS AT KIPL DURING THE EVENING (WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT BEGINNING
IN THE AFTERNOON). MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
RESULT IN OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS STARTING TODAY WITH PEAK
WINDS LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS GUSTS REACH TO AROUND 25 MPH AT
TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY, THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. MINRHS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 10-15% ACROSS THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS TO 15-25% ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS. BY FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS
RETURNING TO A TYPICAL LIGHT AND DIURNAL PATTERN.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...WHITTOCK
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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