874
FXUS65 KPSR 101747
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1047 AM MST WED SEP 10 2025
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER ANOTHER MODERATE HEAT RISK DAY TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH
PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT AROUND 25 MILES PER
HOUR.
- ASIDE FROM SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH PWATS NOW SITTING AS LOW AS 0.5" ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA TO 0.7-0.9" ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE BULK OF THE REGION AS THE
PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO SHIFT MORE INLAND INTO THE WESTERN
U.S. CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS TO BEGIN ACROSS OUR REGION. THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES TODAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA, BUT HIGHS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN A 103-107 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE
PHOENIX METRO.
THE INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ALSO TURN WINDS MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TODAY, ADVECTING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK STORMS ACROSS GILA
COUNTY AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES CAMS. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME FAIRLY BREEZY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON LIKELY REACHING 25 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE PACIFIC LOW CENTER SHOULD REACH NEVADA ON THURSDAY WITH HEIGHT
FALLS CONTINUING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH BREEZY DAYTIME CONDITIONS AND RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO DROP OFF FURTHER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE
WESTERN LOWER DESERTS TO AROUND 100 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN
THE BROADER PACIFIC TROUGH PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN MAY AGAIN SEE SOME ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY, BUT POPS MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 20%. DRIER AIR IS
SEEN SURGING IN BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, FINALLY DROPPING
SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA TO
BELOW 50 DEGREES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO THE 30S ON
SATURDAY. THE COMING WEEKEND LOOKS VERY DRY UNDER CLEAR SKIES AS
THE TROUGH EXITS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LEAVING
BEHIND ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS
AND LOWS FROM THE MID 60S (RURAL AREAS) TO THE LOW 70S. ENSEMBLES
MOSTLY AGREE ON ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INLAND AT SOME POINT
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THEY DIFFER EXACTLY WHERE. THIS UNCERTAINTY
MEANS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
STILL HAS A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE. THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE SHOWS
HIGHS STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WHILE THE UPPER RANGE SHOWS
HIGHS BACK TO NEAR 105 DEGREES. THE CURRENT NBM FORECAST IS MOSTLY
IN THE MIDDLE WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 99-102 DEGREES FOR NEXT
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. EITHER WAY, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1745Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT THE
FAMILIAR DIURNAL TENDENCIES, WITH A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MORE DEFINITE WESTERLY SHIFT
MATERIALIZES. WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS BEFORE DECREASING BY THIS
EVENING TO AOB 10 KTS. OTHER THAN SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS EAST OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
AT KIPL, WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION WHILE AT
KBLH, WINDS WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT KBLH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND NEAR 25 KTS AT KIPL THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL RESULT IN
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH PEAK WINDS LIKELY TODAY AS
GUSTS REACH TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE SOME RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
AND THURSDAY WITH WETTING RAIN CHANCES OF 10-20% ACROSS EASTERN
GILA COUNTY. MINRHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE
FROM 10-15% ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS TO 15-25% ACROSS THE
EASTERN DISTRICTS. BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS RETURNING TO A TYPICAL LIGHT
AND DIURNAL PATTERN.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
CAZ562.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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