545
FXUS65 KPSR 021122
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
422 AM MST THU OCT 2 2025
UPDATE
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES PEAK TODAY, WITH SOME LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS REACHING
TRIPLE DIGITS.
- LOW PRESSURE WILL BRUSH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BRINGING BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING REVEALS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAX OUT OVERHEAD TODAY WITH H5
HEIGHTS IN THE 588-591 RANGE. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY. IN FACT, SOME LOWER DESERT
LOCATIONS (MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ) ARE FORECASTED TO SEE
HIGHS REACH THE LOW 100S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
MINOR HEATRISK, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF CLOUD
COVER, SOME PEOPLE CAN STILL EXPERIENCE HEAT RELATED PROBLEMS,
ESPECIALLY IF OUTSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOONS. SO, MAKE SURE TO DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER AND ELECTROLYTES AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL START TO
PUSH INTO OUR REGION, SLIGHTLY LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT (H5 HEIGHTS
OF 580- 588 ACROSS THE CWA). WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO COOL ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO COOL
3-5 DEGREES ACROSS SE CA AND SW AZ (HIGHS IN THE MID 90S) AND ONLY
A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ. IN FACT A
FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS ARE
FORECASTED TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK AGAIN ON FRIDAY. AS THE
TROUGH STARTS TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH. HOWEVER,
THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS IMPERIAL COUNTY AND THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY, WHERE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH N AZ SATURDAY MORNING
DRAGGING WITH IT A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL STILL GUST 20-30
MPH ACROSS SE CA AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN E AZ SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN. WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECASTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY THAN
FRIDAY. LOWER DESERT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE
LOW-TO-MID 80S.
THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION LEAVING BROAD
TROUGHING OVER OUR AREA TO END THE WEEKEND AND START NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST TROUGH WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER AIR AND THE SECOND TROUGH WILL
KEEP THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SLOWLY RISE AS THE
SECONDARY TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO WARM FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
(MID 80S) ON SUNDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S (UPPER 80S) BY WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN). WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE,
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE FALL-LIKE AND ARE FORECASTED
TO BE IN THE 60S (MID 50S TO LOW 60S) THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS (HIGHER TERRAIN). BUT WITH THE RISING
HEIGHTS ALOFT, MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SLOWLY WARM JUST
LIKE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. WITH MORNING LOWS FORECASTED TO BE
BACK NEAR THE 70 DEGREE MARK BY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER DESERTS, MAINLY FOR THE MORE URBAN AREAS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1120Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 7 KTS.
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MIDDAY
BEFORE VEERING MORE OUT OF THE W-SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL RETURN OUT OF THE ESE AT KPHX AND KIWA LATE TONIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS AT KIPL WILL FAVOR A WESTERLY DIRECTION
THIS MORNING, BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT A RETURN TO WESTERLY FLOW EARLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KTS MATERIALIZING AFTER SUNSET. WINDS AT KBLH WITH FAVOR
A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, BUT SHOULD SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN DISTRICTS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH MINRHS BOTTOMING OUT
EACH AFTERNOON AROUND 15-30%. OVERNIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE FAIR CATEGORY AROUND 40-60%. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TO FALL TO THE 30-50% RANGE. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW LIGHT AND DIURNAL TENDENCIES TODAY, HOWEVER A WEATHER
SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. EXPECT GUSTS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 MPH REGION-WIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SE CA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN E AZ. THE PASSAGE
OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BERISLAVICH
LONG TERM...BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...BERISLAVICH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page